(MENAFN- AzerNews) By trend
The French political establishment has become a center of
attention in Baku due to the hostility of French foreign policy
towards Azerbaijan. In the last two years, the French President,
and members of parliament made numerous controversial statements,
in addition to failing to adhere to the principle of impartiality
regarding the mediation between Azerbaijan and Armenia, and
subsequent post-conflict peacebuilding.
Not to say that this is a new and shocking development, but
France has always swayed toward Armenia, a bit too much for
Azerbaijan's taste. The key development is that the prevalent
opinion in Azerbaijan seems to move in the direction of
disenchantment in the French approach on the matter. It cannot be
blamed; after all, it is obvious to Azerbaijan that Paris is a
supporter of Yerevan.
The position of France as an unfriendly country to Azerbaijan
has become rather obvious to politicians, experts, and political
observers in Baku, which, however, should be a very new and
troubling development for Paris. Continuing this set of policies
takes the leverage away from France vis-à-vis Azerbaijan because
Baku will disregard this coercive approach, as making any
concessions on the matter will undermine Azerbaijan's long-term
security.
Meanwhile, Armenia's close integration and dependence on Russia
means that France places too much trust in one side, which may be
enticed or coerced to act in contradiction to French interests and
needs. Should France encounter a combination of the above-mentioned
circumstances, both Azerbaijan and Armenia would turn away from the
EU powerhouse, which would mean that France would have no
foundation to extend its influence in South Caucasus.
The truth is, however, France will not be able to achieve its
goal increase its influence in South Caucasus. Baku sees talking to
President Macron on the matter of Karabakh as a waste of time, as
evidenced by President Ilham Aliyev's refusal of France-mediated
talks in Brussels in early December. Iran is largely irrelevant in
the current setup of the region. This leaves us with two remaining
powers that influence South Caucasus - Russia and Türkiye. France
managed to damage relations with Türkiye to pursue dubious
political ambitions, while also not being on the best of terms with
Russia due to the incompatible positions of Moscow and Paris on
Ukraine, which France supports politically and militarily.
Also, France played a major role in sanctioning Russia, which
adds to the negative relationship dynamic. This means that neither
Baku, Ankara, nor Moscow would agree to transfer a part of their
influence in the region to France, which will use it to undermine
the position of said countries and fill the existing vacuum.
There is another side to the issue that most policy experts tend
to overlook. The decisions of French ruling elites are not aimed to
secure the best possible outcome for Armenia, which is establishing
cooperation with neighbors. After all, liberal peace-induced trade
and communications are the major reason for peace in Europe, which
was plagued by various conflicts for centuries.
It is possible to argue that French politicians' approach to
Azerbaijan-Armenia relations serves one important purpose, which is
to keep Armenia within its sphere of influence. And it works
because the self-destructing foreign policy of Armenia forced every
country to use coercive methods against it. Meanwhile, Paris is the
only major capital that consistently uses carrots in relations with
Armenia. By supporting Armenia in symbolic, yet undiplomatic ways,
Paris can retain Yerevan within its grasp, without giving anything
significant in return and with little regard to the future of
Azerbaijan-Armenia peace.
However, it is more likely that President Macron's intention is
not to foster durable peace. It is the sensation of gratification
from a perception of a grand accomplishment. In the hands of a
moral and fair person, this is a virtue. However, this is not the
reality in the case of President Macron's policy. From his
perspective, becoming a peacemaker is much more important than
creating and fostering long-term and sustainable peace. It is a
matter of personal glory and extending the political ambitions of
the country.
French elites, the president and mass media prefer to place
themselves on moral high ground and use this opportunity to be a
metaphorical valiant knight protecting those in need. French
politicians are happy to overlook international agreements,
treaties, documents, and obligations in favor of appeasing an
important part of their electorate. And this is also fine. After
all, an investment banker does not become a president by pure luck
or coincidence; it requires support and financial resources.
Now here comes the big question. If France is so adamant about
supporting the key principles of international relations, the UN
charter, and other states' territorial integrity, why Paris does
not pursue the same approach regarding Azerbaijan?
The inconsistent policy of France, which is based on
preferential treatment of the diaspora to acquire political support
diminishes the credibility of Paris as an important partner and
trustworthy partner. And this endangers any future endeavors of the
country, both in South Caucasus and globally.
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Tags: azerbaijan france armenia emmanuel macron
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