Scientists Warn Black Sea Region Faces Rising Climate Risks

(MENAFN) The Black Sea basin may experience warming of up to 4°C by 2070, alongside a sharp rise in extreme weather events, climate experts told Anadolu, according to reports.

Baris Onol from Istanbul Technical University’s Faculty of Aeronautics and Astronautics said rising temperatures are expected to intensify rainfall events, explaining that warmer air can retain more moisture, which increases the likelihood of heavy precipitation.

The findings come from a study conducted by Onol together with doctoral researcher Mehmet Baris Kelebek and Fulden Batibeniz of the University of Bern. The research examined climate projections under a high-emissions scenario by comparing conditions from 2005–2014 with those expected between 2061–2070.

Over a two-year period, the study assessed risks linked to short-duration heavy rainfall, heatwaves, shrinking snow cover, and shifting seasonal rainfall patterns. It focused on the wider Black Sea region, including Türkiye’s Black Sea and Marmara areas, as well as parts of the Aegean, Central Anatolia, and northern Eastern Anatolia.

The results indicate a significant temperature rise across all seasons. Average increases are projected to reach 2–4°C in winter, about 2.5°C in spring, around 3°C in summer, and between 1.5–2.5°C in autumn.

In higher-altitude regions of Eastern Anatolia, warming could be even more pronounced, with some areas potentially seeing maximum temperature increases of up to 7°C in March, according to the study as stated by reports.

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