Victory Options Narrowing As Trump Prepares Iran Ground Assault

Latest stories AI turning US street cameras into a mass surveillance state Chinese private equity circling Trump's school voucher gold rush China turning Cold War jets into budget Taiwan strike drones

Lawrence Freedman, professor emeritus of war studies at King's College London, believes that the president has already checkmated himself regardless of what shape any ground operation takes.

In an analysis published Sunday, Freedman declared Trump had run“out of options” for victory, as there have been no signs of the Iranian regime crumbling due to US-Israeli attacks.

Freedman wrote that Trump now“appears to inhabit an alternative reality,” noting that“his utterances have become increasingly incoherent, with contradictory statements following quickly one after the other, and frankly delusional claims.”

Trump's lone real option at this point, Freedman continued, would to simply declare that he had achieved an unprecedented victory and just walk away. But even in that case, wrote Freedman,“this would mean leaving behind a mess in the Gulf” with no guarantee that Iran would re-open the Strait of Hormuz.

“Success in war is judged not by damage caused but by political objectives realized,” Freedman wrote in his conclusion.“Here the objective was regime change, or at least the emergence of a new compliant leader....Trump's problem is that whatever the claims he might make about the damage to Iran's nuclear and military capacity, which is substantial, the regime survives, the international economy has been severely disrupted, and the bills keep on coming in.”

Houthis

The Houthis on Saturday took credit for launching a ballistic missile at Israel, opening a new front in the war Trum started nearly one month ago.

As reported by Axios, the attack by the Houthis signals that the Yemen-based militia is joining the conflict to aide Iran, which has been under aerial assault from the US and Israel for the past four weeks.

Although the Houthi missile was intercepted by Israeli defenses, it is likely just the opening salvo in an expanding conflict throughout the Middle East.

Axios noted that while the Houthis entered the war by launching an attack on Israel, they could inflict the most damage on the US and its allies in the region by shutting down the strait of Bab al-Mandeb in the Red Sea.

“Doing that,” Axios explained,“would dramatically increase the global economic crisis that has been created due to the war with Iran” and its closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has sent global energy prices skyrocketing.

Sky News international correspondent John Sparks reported on Saturday that the Houthis' entrance into the war shows that“this crisis is expanding, it is escalating.”

Sparks argued that the Houthis' decision to fire a missile at Israel signals that“the geographical spread of this conflict is expanding,” adding that“the Houthis have shown the ability to attack shipping in the Red Sea and the waters around the Arabian Peninsula.”

Sparks said that even though Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio “have been projecting confidence” about having the war under control,“it's not playing out that way... on the ground.”