Global Economy Briefing: January 14, 2026

(MENAFN- The Rio Times) Key Points

• U.S. consumers surprised on the upside: retail rose 0.6% and existing home sales jumped 5.1%.
  
• Pipeline inflation was mixed: PPI softened on the month, but core measures stayed sticky; oil and gasoline stocks built.
  
• Asia stayed stable: Korea's trade surplus widened, Japan's producer inflation cooled, and India's WPI turned positive.
  

United States
The story was demand that refuses to fade. November retail sales rose 0.6% m/m, with core sales up 0.5% and the control group up 0.4%.

That is broad enough to matter for growth. Existing home sales rose to 4.35M in December, up 5.1% m/m.

Mortgage demand also jumped: applications rose 28.5% as the 30-year rate eased to 6.18%, with purchases up (index 184.6) and refis up (1,313.1).

The current-account deficit narrowed to $226.4B from $249.2B. Inflation looked calmer on the surface, but not clean. November PPI was 0.2% m/m and 3.0% y/y.

Core PPI was flat m/m but 3.0% y/y. The ex-food/energy/transport measure stayed hot at 3.5% y/y. Business inventories rose 0.3%.

Energy did not help: crude inventories rose 3.391M and gasoline inventories rose 8.977M, with Cushing up 0.745M.

Distillates were flat to slightly lower and heating oil fell 0.745M. GDPNow rose to 5.3%. Confidence improved (PCSI 53.81).

Net: growth is strong, but costs are not fully tamed.


Europe and UK
Long rates stayed high but showed mixed pressure. The UK sold 10-year gilts at 4.456% and Germany sold 30-year bunds at 3.450%, both important signals for financing conditions in 2026.

Policy speakers stayed active. The day's macro message was“tight financial conditions, slow easing.”
Canada
The leading index rose 0.26% m/m again. Confidence improved (PCSI 49.28 from 46.43). This points to slow, steady growth rather than a break.
Latin America
Brazil's inflation stayed contained (headline still in the mid-4s), but services and confidence improved (PCSI 55.14).

FX outflows continued at −$1.696B, smaller than the prior −$4.127B. The trade channel stayed supportive earlier in the month, but flows remain the near-term swing factor.

Mexico's confidence eased slightly (PCSI 54.22 from 55.16). Argentina's confidence improved (PCSI 48.61).
Asia-Pacific
India's WPI inflation turned positive at 0.83% y/y, with manufacturing inflation rising to 1.82% and food still slightly negative (−0.43%).

Japan's producer inflation cooled to 2.4% y/y with a 0.1% m/m rise; machine tool orders slowed to 10.6% y/y.

Korea stayed strong: exports rose 13.3% y/y, imports 4.6% y/y, and the surplus widened to $12.17B.

The central bank held at 2.50%. Australia's inflation expectations eased to 4.6% and reserves rose to A$113.9B.
What it means
This was a“strong demand, sticky costs” day for the U.S. That keeps the Fed in gradual mode even with falling headline inflation.

Europe's long yields remain a constraint, so growth will rely on services and external demand.

Korea's surplus and Japan's cooler producer prices support the global goods cycle without reigniting inflation.

In LATAM, Brazil's flows are the key risk despite better confidence. Tilt: keep quality duration but be selective.

Favor U.S. services and housing-adjacent names; add to Asia exporters tied to Korea's cycle; prefer MXN carry over BRL until Brazil's outflows fade.

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