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Brazil Logged Its Second-Biggest Net Dollar Outflow On Record In 2025 - Yet The Real Strengthened
(MENAFN- The Rio Times) Key Points
Brazil posted a net FX outflow of $33.316 billion in 2025, the second-largest since 1982.
The drain came from the financial channel (-$82.467 billion), not trade (+$49.151 billion).
High local rates and a softer global dollar helped the real strengthen despite spot outflows.
Brazil ended 2025 with one of its starkest net dollar exits on record-and still finished the year with a stronger currency. Preliminary Central Bank figures show total FX flow at -$33.316 billion, the second-largest net outflow in a data series that begins in 1982.
Only 2019 was worse, at -$44.768 billion. The story sits inside the split between“commercial” and“financial” flows.
Trade-related operations delivered a net inflow of $49.151 billion, but the financial channel registered a much larger net outflow of $82.467 billion-also the second-largest for that channel, behind 2024.
The two-way scale was enormous: financial-channel“purchases” reached $591.581 billion while“sales” totaled $674.048 billion, leaving a large negative net.
Trade flows were supportive, but not strong enough. The Central Bank linked the softer commercial inflow mainly to higher imports. FX contracted for imports hit $238 billion in 2025, the second-highest level in the historical series, while exports totaled $287.5 billion.
Brazil real gains despite outflows
Separately, Brazil's trade surplus narrowed to $68.3 billion from $74.2 billion in 2024, reflecting import growth outpacing exports.
Why did the real appreciate amid such a headline outflow? The answer is price and positioning. Brazil's high interest rates remained a magnet for yield, encouraging BRL-friendly strategies and derivative positioning that can offset weak spot flows.
A weaker dollar globally also reduced pressure on high-yield emerging-market currencies. In that backdrop, the Central Bank largely stayed on the sidelines in spot, conducting only two $1 billion“casadão” operations-spot dollar sales paired with reverse FX swaps-aimed at easing onshore dollar funding costs without targeting a specific exchange-rate level.
December underlined the pattern: net FX flow was -$13.562 billion, driven by a -$20.982 billion financial outflow partly offset by a +$7.421 billion commercial inflow.
Year-end remittances were amplified as some firms and investors moved early ahead of tax changes taking effect on January 1, 2026, including a 10% withholding mechanism tied to dividends in certain cases under Law 15.270/2025.
Brazil posted a net FX outflow of $33.316 billion in 2025, the second-largest since 1982.
The drain came from the financial channel (-$82.467 billion), not trade (+$49.151 billion).
High local rates and a softer global dollar helped the real strengthen despite spot outflows.
Brazil ended 2025 with one of its starkest net dollar exits on record-and still finished the year with a stronger currency. Preliminary Central Bank figures show total FX flow at -$33.316 billion, the second-largest net outflow in a data series that begins in 1982.
Only 2019 was worse, at -$44.768 billion. The story sits inside the split between“commercial” and“financial” flows.
Trade-related operations delivered a net inflow of $49.151 billion, but the financial channel registered a much larger net outflow of $82.467 billion-also the second-largest for that channel, behind 2024.
The two-way scale was enormous: financial-channel“purchases” reached $591.581 billion while“sales” totaled $674.048 billion, leaving a large negative net.
Trade flows were supportive, but not strong enough. The Central Bank linked the softer commercial inflow mainly to higher imports. FX contracted for imports hit $238 billion in 2025, the second-highest level in the historical series, while exports totaled $287.5 billion.
Brazil real gains despite outflows
Separately, Brazil's trade surplus narrowed to $68.3 billion from $74.2 billion in 2024, reflecting import growth outpacing exports.
Why did the real appreciate amid such a headline outflow? The answer is price and positioning. Brazil's high interest rates remained a magnet for yield, encouraging BRL-friendly strategies and derivative positioning that can offset weak spot flows.
A weaker dollar globally also reduced pressure on high-yield emerging-market currencies. In that backdrop, the Central Bank largely stayed on the sidelines in spot, conducting only two $1 billion“casadão” operations-spot dollar sales paired with reverse FX swaps-aimed at easing onshore dollar funding costs without targeting a specific exchange-rate level.
December underlined the pattern: net FX flow was -$13.562 billion, driven by a -$20.982 billion financial outflow partly offset by a +$7.421 billion commercial inflow.
Year-end remittances were amplified as some firms and investors moved early ahead of tax changes taking effect on January 1, 2026, including a 10% withholding mechanism tied to dividends in certain cases under Law 15.270/2025.
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