USD/CAD Forecast 08/12: Canadian Employment Surprise (Video)

(MENAFN- Daily Forex)

• USD/CAD slid sharply after a surprisingly strong Canadian jobs report, though Canada's data is often volatile.
• Price action may extend toward 1.38–1.3750, while a break above the current candlestick high would signal strong bullish momentum.

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You can see that the US dollar has fallen pretty significantly against the Canadian dollar, and while the US dollar itself isn't necessarily weak during the day, Canada did have its jobs number come out at an addition of 56,000, and it was anticipated to lose 1,000. This is typical of Statistics Canada, though, because the employment numbers in Canada are always all over the place.

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I don't know what that is, but it makes the Bureau of Labor Statistics look efficient in the United States. So, while this does make sense, it makes perfect sense that the Canadian dollar would strengthen on this news. The reality is that a lot of times we get a complete reversal the next month. So, we'll have to wait and see how this plays out.

Key Support Levels and Trend Expectations

For now, it looks like the US dollar could drop down to the 1.38 level, which is the next large round psychologically significant figure. And if we break down below there, then we could be looking at the 1.3750 level. This is a pair that I think is going to continue to be very choppy and sloppy. And as a result, you will have to be careful. But keep in mind that if we turn around and take out the top of this candlestick, that's an extraordinarily bullish sign. And think at that point in time, I would get aggressively long the US dollar.

EURUSD Chart by TradingView

The United States is expected to do fairly well in 2026, especially in the first part of the year, and that does help Canada. So, while the US dollar may really strengthen against multiple other currencies, it might be more of a fistfight here, which, quite frankly, is normal. This is a currency pair where a lot of the volume is done out of necessity, not necessarily speculation. So, with this, it looks like we're going to drop a little bit further after this candlestick, and then we'll reassess things at right around 1.3750, maybe 1.38.

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