All Out Support For Zelensky's Hard Line Means Sinking NATO

With them backing Zelensky and undermining Trump's efforts, Trump can now focus on US geopolitical priorities. Along with China, Russia is critical for American policy. The 2025 National Security Strategy makes it clear the US wants to“reestablish strategic stability with Russia.”

What does“strategic stability with Russia” mean? It means a return to a more balanced relationship between the two superpowers.

Part of the restoration obviously means ending NATO expansion and keeping Ukraine out of NATO. The new National Security Strategy follows this approach. It means a considerable rethinking of the NATO alliance. NATO cannot be opposed to US geopolitical leadership if the alliance will continue. Thanks to Starmer, Macron and Merz, NATO is on the rocks.

The 2025 National Security Strategy openly worries about Europe's industrial, social and political decline and about the loss of freedoms not only on the periphery (Romania, for example) but at the core in France, Germany and the UK (where even some local elections have been delayed at least for the next two years and where the UK government has tried to intimidate and suppress the opposition).

In a stunning statement about Europe, the National Security Strategy declares:“Should present trends continue, the continent will be unrecognizable in 20 years or less. As such, it is far from obvious whether certain European countries will have economies and militaries strong enough to remain reliable allies.”

The US is not going to openly break with NATO, but it is shifting the burden of responsibility onto Europe, declaring the US won't continue“unfairly” paying for European security. While the Europeans are now trying to increase their investment in defense (up to 5% pf GDP), it will be years before any real change takes place in Europe's armed forces.

Young people in Europe on the whole don't want to serve in the army, and the alarm is great enough that France is initiating a limited form of military servic and the Germans are instituting a form of a voluntary lottery system, seen as a first step to conscription.

Britain's army is crumbling and finding recruits is difficult, as the armed forces continue to shrink. The lack of funds in the UK makes reconstitution nearly impossible. Elsewhere, in Poland, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced a plan to make all Polish men undergo compulsory military training.

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Thus there is a massive gap between intentions and reality when it comes to European rearmament or any ability to replace the United States to assure stability in Europe. Under these circumstances, the decision by the“big three” plus Zelensky to undermine the US initiatives on Ukraine and Russia looks suicidal, and it is.

It may be that some sort of Ukraine negotiations stumble forward, but unless Kyiv's government changes hands (Trump is calling for elections) and changes its policy, the chances for any negotiations are slim to none.

The administration will try and pursue improved ties to Russia, notwithstanding the Europeans, and look to lower the nuclear threshold with arms agreements, if it can and if the Russians are willing.

In parallel, Washington could start lifting sanctions or agree to waivers on certain sanctions, allowing for US business deals and investments in Russia. Moving this way generates its own momentum and leads to changes in the geopolitical landscape, as Washington refocuses on its core interests.

Stephen Bryen is a former US deputy undersecretary of defense. This article first appeared on his Weapons and Strategy newsletter.

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