S&P Raises Navoi Mining Rating Following Uzbekistan's Sovereign Upgrade
According to S&P, the upgrade to 'BB/Stable/' reflects the recent improvement in Uzbekistan's sovereign rating. The agency continues to assess NMMC's stand-alone credit profile (SACP) at 'bb+', which remains higher than the sovereign rating. As a result, any sovereign upgrade automatically translates into a higher rating for NMMC, while the company's rating remains capped at the sovereign level.
The stable outlook indicates that NMMC is expected to maintain conservative leverage, keeping debt-to-EBITDA below 1x, which will support the company's ability to continue paying sizable dividends to the government.
S&P also outlined conditions that could lead to a downgrade. Negative rating action could follow a sharp increase in debt, large acquisitions or higher shareholder distributions, weakening leverage, or major operational disruptions, reducing cash flow and requiring substantial investment to restore production. Liquidity pressures that hinder debt repayment or refinancing could likewise trigger a downgrade.
In contrast, an upgrade would be possible only if Uzbekistan's sovereign rating is raised again.
S&P further provided a detailed breakdown of the factors underpinning the rating. The agency notes that NMMC's issuer credit rating stands at 'BB/Stable', while its SACP remains at 'bb+'. The company's business risk is assessed as fair, with high country risk and moderately high industry risk. NMMC's competitive position is considered satisfactory, and its financial risk is evaluated as intermediate. Liquidity is assessed as adequate, and the company benefits from a very high likelihood of government support, though its rating remains constrained by the sovereign ceiling of 'BB'.
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