(MENAFN) A new global assessment warns that carbon pollution from fossil fuels is projected to reach an all-time high this year, with emissions rising more quickly in the United States and the European Union while slowing in China and India. At the current pace, researchers caution that the planet could surpass the 1.5°C warming threshold in as little as four years.

According to the latest Global Carbon Budget report, the situation is increasingly uneven: despite some regions expanding renewable energy and managing modest emissions declines, worldwide warming remains firmly on an upward trajectory. The study estimates fossil fuel emissions will rise by 1.1% this year, climbing to 38.1 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide.

“These findings are in line with recent years, showing a regional shift in fossil fuel emissions but with an overall continuing increase,” said Anna Michalak, founding director of the Carnegie Climate and Resilience Hub, according to reports. The publication coincides with global leaders convening in Belem, Brazil, for the 30th UN Climate Conference (COP30), though the United States did not attend.

Michalak noted that “The world has not been able to meet the ambitious goals outlined in the Paris Agreement,” referring to the 2015 accord intended to cap warming at 1.5°C above preindustrial averages.

Separate assessments from international energy analysts warn that, based on existing global policies, temperatures could soar close to 3°C by the end of the century. Even with stronger clean-energy initiatives planned by governments—measures expected to push coal and oil demand to peak by 2030—the world could still approach around 2.5°C of warming.

Glen Peters, a senior climate researcher and co-author of the Carbon Budget report, said persistent global energy consumption continues to delay the long-awaited peak in fossil CO₂ emissions, despite record renewable energy deployment. “Eventually, emissions will peak. We just don’t know when,” he said, according to general accounts. He explained that national emission trends often reflect both annual weather fluctuations and shifting energy use.

China’s carbon output, after years of rapid expansion, has largely flattened as large-scale renewable projects continue to grow, with only a slight increase of 0.4% expected this year. India’s emissions are projected to rise 1.4%, a slower rate influenced partly by an early monsoon season that reduced energy demand for cooling. In contrast, the EU saw emissions rise again due to a colder winter that increased heating needs and weaker winds that lowered wind-power production.

US emissions are expected to climb 1.9%, driven by a return to typical winter conditions and higher natural gas prices that prompted more coal generation, Peters explained. He also pointed out that more than 35 nations have succeeded in cutting emissions over the past decade while still expanding their economies, with many developing states rapidly scaling solar and wind power.

Professor Pierre Friedlingstein, director of the Global Carbon Budget project, emphasized the gravity of the situation while acknowledging areas of advancement. “We’re running out of time…but we can still see progress.”

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