(MENAFN- The Arabian Post) By Nitya Chakraborty

The NDA led by the BJP has swept the assembly polls in Bihar stunning the RJD and the other constituents of the INDIA Bloc by the extent of the win of the NDA constituents in the 243 member state assembly. The initial results till this afternoon indicate that the NDA has got 202 seats as against 35 received by Mahagathbandhan and six by others. This 2025 verdict can be taken as a disaster for the INDIA Bloc in Bihar led by RJD as in 2020 assembly elections, the MGB was nearly scraping through with a majority. The NDA got 122 seats as against 114 by MGB while others got seven seats. The RJD emerged as the single largest party in 2020 with 75 seats as against 74 by the BJP. The JD(U) was the third party five years back.

At a time when the MGB was gripped with big optimism after the projection of Tejashwi Yadav as the potential chief minister of the MGB and Rahul Gandhi led movement against SIR took the character of a massive movement against the Election Commission as also centre, what went wrong in the strategy and poll campaign of the MGB?. This has to be assessed by the leaders of INDIA Bloc and their think tank after the full results are out, but a few indicators are available which have to be studied carefully by the MGB leadership.

First, Nitish Kumar is no push over. This 2025 election has rehabilitated the chief minister. He has proverbial nine lives. The BJP has got the largest number of seats singly at 92 as against 82 received by JD(U), but Nitish Kumar is due to be administered the oath with full powers and the state BJP leadership has to wait for long as long as the JD(U) supremo keeps physically fit.

Secondly, the women support has certainly gone mostly in favour of NDA due to Nitish Kumar. The announcement of additional funds for the women just few days before the elections had its big impact. Nitish Kumar could get the first advantage of such revdis as he was in power. The RJD leader's follow up announcement failed to garner that impact. In fact women participation in the polls and their assertion of voting rights aggressively are the outcome of the various women centric schemes including cash transfer to women. Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has shown in Bengal how effectively, it can be implemented in the state to get political mileage.

Thirdly, Rahul Gandhi's movement against SIR did not have the expected effect on electorate. Even in dalit and poor agricultural labour bases, the NDA candidates fared better compared to the 2020 polls. The strategy on SIR has to be assessed properly by the INDIA Bloc as a whole. Rahul Gandhi is certainly a senior leader but he should not be allowed to hijack INDIA Bloc agenda on his own terms. Congress got only 4 seats-this should determine the organisational stature of the Congress in Bihar which continuously bargained for more seats from RJD.

RJD was the leader of MGB. So it got the maximum hit from NDA sweep. But the details of voting figures indicate that the RJD might have got more votes than the BJP, RJD has the potential and it is the party which can stage a comeback after assessing its fault lines in the 2025 poll campaign. Similarly, the CPI(ML)-L which lost heavily has to assess that its 2020 base has been lost to some extent. The Party worked hard for its candidates as also for other MGB nominees. The CPI(ML)-L general secretary Dipankar Bhattacharya has to go deep into the low performance of his party as well as the MGB in the 2025 polls.

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It is clear that the Jan Suraaj Party of Prashant Kishor and AIMIM of Owaisi cut the MGB votes, especially the votes of RJD. These things happen in a parliamentary democracy in elections. But the real big jolt to the MGB came from Chirag Paswan's Party LJP(RV) which could transfer its dalit votes to the NDA candidates. The BJP and JD(U) benefitted immensely from their alliance with Chirag's party. With 21 seats, Chirag Paswan has become powerful in both state and central politics. The MGB leadership has to go into all the factors that contributed to the defeat of many of its candidates in their strongholds including the role of Chirag Paswan's party.

While the INDIA Bloc and MGB leaderships are expected to do introspection on the factors responsible for the defeat of the MGB, for BJP, it is their moment of glory. Though, the central leaders were talking of sure win by NDA in Bihar, in private, they were worried. The movement against SIR got both Narendra Modi and Amit Shah panicky. But they are great strategists and they know how to get out of a crisis situation. They did that. Amit Shah will certainly take credit for the victory of his strategy in Bihar elections. His next focus is now on showing a better performance in the next round of state assembly elections in Kerala, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Assam and Puducherry.

Herein lies the big task of the INDIA Bloc to take proper lessons from Bihar election debacle and prepare unitedly to meet the challenge in the next round of state assembly polls scheduled in April/May 2026. Only four months are left. So the INDIA Bloc constituents have no time left, they should start their work in the concerned states. The BJP central leadership will do all their utmost to topple the opposition governments in Tamil Nadu and West Bengal. Their focus will be fully on these two states. In Kerala, the fight is between CPI(M) led LDF and the Congress led UDF, BJP can at best secure two/three seats. The new government will be led by any of the INDIA Bloc partners CPI(M) or the Congress.

Similarly in West Bengal, in Mamata Banerjee, the INDIA Bloc has got a political strategist who can take on the BJP at the state level in the 2026 assembly elections. All indications suggest that whatever efforts, Home Minister Amit Shah may make, the BJP is not organizationally in a position to fare better. But still, the central leadership of the BJP will make use all of its cards to see that their objective is achieved. Trinamool Congress supremo is aware of this and she and her party are ready.

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For the INDIA Bloc, there is some reason for getting worried at the recent developments in Tamil Nadu on the eve of the 2026 assembly elections. The film star Vijay is making waves and he is getting massive response from youth and women. His political party has not yet decided to take a position on alliance. But if Vijay takes a position aligning with the AIADMK-BJP alliance, that might pose a threat to the Stalin led DMK and the INDIA Bloc constituents who are jointly contesting the assembly polls. The political situation in Tamil Nadu in 2025 is a bit different from the 2021 polls. The DMK led front should take the challenge seriously and make massive preparations to take on any joint threat posed by the state opposition.

In Assam, BJP is confident of retaining power in the state. The central party has faith in the chief minister Himanta Biswa Sharma's strategy of delinking Bengali speaking Muslims from the Assamese speaking Muslims and campaigning on Hindutva lines to gain favour with Assamese Hindus. In Assam, at last the INDIA bloc parties have arrived at a sort of unity for the 2026 elections under the leadership of the Congress Party which is the leading INDIA Bloc party in Assam. Assam has 35 per cent people of minorities mainly Muslims. AIUDF is the party mainly looking after the interests of Bengali speaking Muslims for long. The Congress has problems in having electoral front with this party. But if AIUDF fights separately that will help BJP in many constituencies. The Congress may take lessons from the strategic alliance of Chirag Paswan with NDA in Bihar and how it benefitted the NDA. The opposition front can have electoral understanding with the objective of not dividing anti-BJP votes, even though not making AIUDF a part of the opposition front. If the INDIA Bloc wants to defeat BJP in 2026 elections in Assam, there can not be any division of anti-BJP votes.

Each state election needs a different poll strategy. For Kerala, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal, the electoral scenario is set, but in Assam, it is still fluid. Only one step has been taken forward, a few more steps are needed for final victory of INDIA Bloc in Assam which is possible with a proper poll strategy. INDIA Bloc leaders have to meet, do painstaking analysis and take steps for the April/ May 2026 state assembly elections. One more assembly election battle in 2025 after Delhi has been won by the BJP. But for the 2026 battles, INDIA Bloc can not afford to lose any. (IPA Service)

The article INDIA Bloc Must Take Proper Lessons From Big Jolt In Bihar Assembly Polls appeared first on Latest India news, analysis and reports on Newspack by India Press Agency).

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