KABUL (Pajhwok): Some international organizations estimated Afghanistan's population at 42.6 million people in 2024, but the National Statistics and Information Authority (ASIA) declares these figures as inaccurate, saying that it has estimated Afghanistan's population at 36.4 million in the current Hijri calendar year.

No accurate census has been carried out in Afghanistan since 1358 solar year, while experts call such a census the foundation of Afghanistan's development, fair service delivery, and effective planning, emphasizing that a systematic system should be established and budget allocated for the purpose.

ASIA says its census plan has been approved by the Council of Ministers and practical work will begin when the leadership of the Islamic Emirate orders.

Pajhwok Afghan News obtained the estimated population figures for Afghanistan in 2024 from UNData, but other relevant population figures from 2010 to 2023 were taken from the website of the Population Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs.

According to these figures, the population of Afghanistan in 2024 is estimated at 42.6 million, an increase of 14.4 million compared to 2010.

The UN agency has not announced the population figures for the current year 2025, but has separately shown the number of men and women for other years. The figures show the number of women is one percent less than that of men.

The United Nations Population Division uses the Cohort-Component method to estimate and forecast the world population. In this method, population change is calculated based on three elements-births, deaths, and migration-and the population size is estimated over time by age and sex.

However, Mohammad Halim Rafie, spokesman for the National Statistics and Information Authority of Afghanistan, declared the figures of these agencies inaccurate and said the National Statistics and Information Authority estimated Afghanistan's population in 1404 solar year at 36.4 million - 49 percent women and 51 percent men.

The figures of this agency differ significantly from the figures of international institutions.

Pajhwok obtained these figures from the website of the National Statistics and Information Authority, showing that on average, the number of men is two percent higher compared to women.

Rafie told Pajhwok Afghan News that the only reliable source of statistics and information in Afghanistan was ASIA that collects, analyzes, and publishes data and information from various organizations across the country in print and electronic form after analyzing it.

About the fact that the last census was conducted in Afghanistan in 1979, but the results were incomplete as only 60 percent of the country's population was counted in this census, the rest was estimated, and the number of Afghans was announced as between 13 and 14 million; he said:“During the tenure of former President Hamid Karzai, a plan was chalked out to conduct an accurate population census at the country level, but due to insecurity and wars, the ground was not conducive for it. In other words, since 1979, no accurate population census has been conducted at the level of Afghanistan. No accurate figures exist as of now.”

Regarding the population figures presented by the National Statistics and Information Authority, he said:“We have accurate and transparent formulas for the censuses we conduct, the data we collect, the entire procedure we share with the public, on what basis we collect the data? What are our sources? In what format are the data collected? But they [international institutions] do not explain this at all.”

“We conduct the census every year, using the one-exponential equation, which is equivalent to international standards, an equation that most developed countries in the world use,” he said.

He added that this formula took into account population growth and, in addition, death and birth rates were all considered.

He said some foreign organizations and institutions that provide annual figures for Afghanistan's population were very different from the figures of the National Statistics and Information Authority of Afghanistan.

“They collect these figures without the coordination of our organization, then they do not explain the process and procedure for analyzing the data and collecting the data, and how they conducted this census.”

Rafie said:“Most of them [international organizations] show a high population level in Afghanistan in order to receive money from the international community to finance themselves, and in order to find donors, they show a high percentage of the population of Afghanistan who are poor, for example... We have also talked to the international community about this, we have also talked to some other organizations about what basis you collect these figures,... They do not answer us, but the figures they have shown are not correct in any sense.”

Why is it important to determine the exact population number?

Economic analyst Omidullah Qasimzai told Pajhwok Afghan News that the census was of fundamental importance for the country's development, planning, and national stability, and an accurate census could facilitate the provision of services to citizens in various fields.

He also said that an accurate census could create justice and balance in the provision of public services.

Qasimzai said:“If the government lacks an accurate census of each province and each region, it cannot allocate its budget for those regions in a fundamental way, nor can it implement public-interest projects in a comprehensive way, and overall, it cannot provide services to the people fairly.”

He said that in the past few decades, governments have not been able to conduct an accurate census in the country due to wars, insecurity, economic underdevelopment, a faulty administrative system, and some other problems.

According to him, the government now needs to establish a systematic system for conducting census, should allocate budget for it and strengthen relevant institutions to accurately determine the population of Afghanistan, put an end to the problems that have arisen in the country and determine and announce an accurate census.

The spokesperson for the National Statistics and Information Authority also considered it necessary to determine the exact population number.

“This is a very important issue. If we lack accurate data, we cannot distribute the budget to the provinces properly. It plays a very important role in strategic plans and government policies. On this basis, the National Statistics and Information Authority has been legally entrusted with the responsibility of collecting accurate population data every ten years.”

He added:“Although we have prepared a proposal for the population census for now on how and by what method this census will be conducted, the budget has not yet been allocated to our administration. Our plan has been shared with the Council of Ministers, the Council of Ministers has approved and passed it, it has been sent to the supreme leader office, and God willing, when we receive a written order from the Sheikh Sahib's office, we will start this process practically.”

He added that the Islamic Emirate initially prepared a comprehensive and strategic plan at the request of international institutions to conduct a practical and accurate census of the country, and they had also promised assistance, but when the proposal was prepared and it required 120 to 150 million US dollars to conduct an accurate and complete census, the international community has not yet responded positively to it.

He says that a nationwide census requires a lot of financial resources and manpower.

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