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Netherlands Snap Election Outcome Unpredictable, Expert Says
(MENAFN) As the Netherlands prepares for its snap general elections on Wednesday, experts warn that the result is highly unpredictable, reflecting a volatile electorate and a fragmented political scene. Lengthy coalition negotiations are widely expected, analysts say.
"Anything is still up for grabs," Dr. Kristof Jacobs, associate professor at Radboud University in Nijmegen, told media.
He pointed to the 2023 election, when 40% of voters made their final choice only in the last week before election day. "That is very common in the Netherlands," Jacobs noted.
The vote was called after Prime Minister Dick Schoof’s coalition collapsed in June 2025, following the withdrawal of Geert Wilders’ far-right Party for Freedom (PVV) over disagreements with partners on stricter immigration and asylum policies.
Jacobs highlighted two major influences on voter behavior in the final campaign days: opinion polls and televised debates.
"Voters in the Netherlands tend to take notice of who is the biggest in the polls. If they are more right-wing voters, they tend to look at who is the biggest right-wing party. If they are more left-wing voters, they tend to look at who is the biggest left-wing," he explained.
‘You always need a coalition’
Recent polls indicate that PVV could claim the most votes. Yet Jacobs stressed that leading the vote does not guarantee governing authority.
In the Netherlands, a party requires 76 seats to secure a majority—a milestone Jacobs says, "hasn't happened in the Netherlands for a very long time."
The nation’s fragmented political landscape ensures coalition governments are unavoidable. "Finishing first in the Netherlands is basically a meaningless thing, or at least it doesn't have that much meaning ... You always need a coalition," he said.
Jacobs also pointed out that it is "very unlikely" PVV will join the next government, as several parties, including the conservative-liberal People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), have refused collaboration with the far-right.
He predicts the most likely scenario is a center-right coalition, contingent on the strength of the left-wing bloc led by Frans Timmermans of the GroenLinks–Labour alliance.
"Anything is still up for grabs," Dr. Kristof Jacobs, associate professor at Radboud University in Nijmegen, told media.
He pointed to the 2023 election, when 40% of voters made their final choice only in the last week before election day. "That is very common in the Netherlands," Jacobs noted.
The vote was called after Prime Minister Dick Schoof’s coalition collapsed in June 2025, following the withdrawal of Geert Wilders’ far-right Party for Freedom (PVV) over disagreements with partners on stricter immigration and asylum policies.
Jacobs highlighted two major influences on voter behavior in the final campaign days: opinion polls and televised debates.
"Voters in the Netherlands tend to take notice of who is the biggest in the polls. If they are more right-wing voters, they tend to look at who is the biggest right-wing party. If they are more left-wing voters, they tend to look at who is the biggest left-wing," he explained.
‘You always need a coalition’
Recent polls indicate that PVV could claim the most votes. Yet Jacobs stressed that leading the vote does not guarantee governing authority.
In the Netherlands, a party requires 76 seats to secure a majority—a milestone Jacobs says, "hasn't happened in the Netherlands for a very long time."
The nation’s fragmented political landscape ensures coalition governments are unavoidable. "Finishing first in the Netherlands is basically a meaningless thing, or at least it doesn't have that much meaning ... You always need a coalition," he said.
Jacobs also pointed out that it is "very unlikely" PVV will join the next government, as several parties, including the conservative-liberal People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), have refused collaboration with the far-right.
He predicts the most likely scenario is a center-right coalition, contingent on the strength of the left-wing bloc led by Frans Timmermans of the GroenLinks–Labour alliance.
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