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Oil's Bounce Has A Fragile Core
(MENAFN- The Rio Times) Brent is hovering near $65 and WTI around $61 as the week opens-levels that cap a brisk late-week rebound after a bruising October slide.
The rally feels good because it was fast: Brent rose roughly 9% last week, WTI about 8%. But the story behind the story is less about scarcity and more about shifting risk.
What moved prices
Two things changed the mood. First, headlines pointed to a thaw in U.S.–China tensions, easing growth fears that had weighed on demand expectations.
Second, fresh sanctions chatter around Russian energy nudged a risk premium back into the market and forced short-covering.
U.S. data helped: the latest weekly report showed draws across crude (about 1 million barrels) and key products (gasoline down ~2.1 million; distillates down ~1.5 million), suggesting near-term tightness.
A small U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve buy tender (about 1 million barrels, bids due Oct 28) also steadied the front of the curve.
Why the rebound may fade
The medium-term balance still looks comfortable. OPEC+ is set to add a modest 137,000 barrels a day from November and remains flexible.
U.S. supply signals are steady (the rig count nudged up by two to around 550), and the IEA continues to flag slower 2025 demand growth.
China's crude appetite is mixed, while Russian barrels keep finding homes-often at narrower discounts-so the true bite of sanctions depends on enforcement, freight, and buyers' risk tolerance.
What the charts say
On four-hour charts, both Brent and WTI have run into their upper Bollinger Bands with cooling momentum-classic pause territory after a squeeze.
Daily charts are repairing: RSI back to mid-range and MACD curling up. The near pivots are clear: Brent support ~$64 with resistance in the $66–$68 zone; WTI support ~$60 with resistance at $62–$63.
Why it matters-especially from Brazil
Global prices feed directly into Brazil 's refinery gate and pump-price debates, affect Petrobras cash flows, and shape the value of Brazilian crude exports.
The next U.S. inventory print, details on the SPR tender, and any concrete steps on sanctions will decide whether this bounce turns into trend-or proves to be just a reflex in a market still defined by risk, not shortage.
The rally feels good because it was fast: Brent rose roughly 9% last week, WTI about 8%. But the story behind the story is less about scarcity and more about shifting risk.
What moved prices
Two things changed the mood. First, headlines pointed to a thaw in U.S.–China tensions, easing growth fears that had weighed on demand expectations.
Second, fresh sanctions chatter around Russian energy nudged a risk premium back into the market and forced short-covering.
U.S. data helped: the latest weekly report showed draws across crude (about 1 million barrels) and key products (gasoline down ~2.1 million; distillates down ~1.5 million), suggesting near-term tightness.
A small U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve buy tender (about 1 million barrels, bids due Oct 28) also steadied the front of the curve.
Why the rebound may fade
The medium-term balance still looks comfortable. OPEC+ is set to add a modest 137,000 barrels a day from November and remains flexible.
U.S. supply signals are steady (the rig count nudged up by two to around 550), and the IEA continues to flag slower 2025 demand growth.
China's crude appetite is mixed, while Russian barrels keep finding homes-often at narrower discounts-so the true bite of sanctions depends on enforcement, freight, and buyers' risk tolerance.
What the charts say
On four-hour charts, both Brent and WTI have run into their upper Bollinger Bands with cooling momentum-classic pause territory after a squeeze.
Daily charts are repairing: RSI back to mid-range and MACD curling up. The near pivots are clear: Brent support ~$64 with resistance in the $66–$68 zone; WTI support ~$60 with resistance at $62–$63.
Why it matters-especially from Brazil
Global prices feed directly into Brazil 's refinery gate and pump-price debates, affect Petrobras cash flows, and shape the value of Brazilian crude exports.
The next U.S. inventory print, details on the SPR tender, and any concrete steps on sanctions will decide whether this bounce turns into trend-or proves to be just a reflex in a market still defined by risk, not shortage.
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