(MENAFN- Asia Times) As Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) moves toward calling an extraordinary session of the Diet to elect a new national leader, current Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's reflection “On the 80th anniversary of the end of the war” took on added significance.

If the election takes place, which seems likely but is not yet certain, it will pit newly elected LDP President Sanae Takaichi, who represents the party's conservative wing, against one or more opposition candidates, with LDP moderates expected to back Takaichi to maintain party unity.

In the run-off election for party president held on October 4, Takaichi received 51% of the votes from eligible LDP Diet members. In the Lower House of the Diet, which has the final say in choosing a prime minister, the LDP holds 196 seats, accounting for 42% of the 465 total.

This means that if the four main opposition parties cannot agree to support a single candidate, they would split the vote and hand the election to a right-wing faction representing less than one-quarter of the Diet, with predictable consequences for foreign and defense policies.

In his reflection, an official document released by the Prime Minister's Office on October 10 and presented in condensed format at a press conference held the same day, Ishiba wrote:

“To date, Statements by the Prime Minister have been issued on the 50th, 60th and 70th anniversary of the end of the war, and I uphold the positions articulated by the previous cabinets on history.

“The past three Statements do not specifically address in depth why we could not have avoided the war. The 70th anniversary Statement said '(Japan) attempted to overcome its diplomatic and economic deadlock through the use of force. Its domestic political system could not serve as a brake to stop such attempts.' No further details were provided in the Statement.

“The unanswered question is: why our domestic political system could not serve as a brake to stop such attempts.

“Why did the leadership of the government and the military plunge headlong into a reckless war...?” he continued, after noting that research organizations established by the cabinet and the army had concluded that Japan's defeat was inevitable.

In Ishiba's understanding, there were several factors at work:

• Problems with the Constitution of the Empire of Japan – specifically, no civilian control over the supreme command of the army and navy.

• Problems of the Government, which was weakened by squabbling political parties, allowing the military to take control of military policy and budget.

• Problems of the Imperial Diet, which gradually lost its ability to function. Ishiba cited the example of Representative SAITO Takao, who in 1940“criticized the war's descent into a quagmire and harshly questioned the government about its objectives.” Under pressure from the army, the Diet expelled Saito by a vote of 296 to 7.

• Problems of the Media, which supported the war“because war reporting 'sold well,' and newspapers significantly increased their circulation.”

• Problems in Information Gathering and Analysis:“Did Japan gather sufficient information on the international and military situation? Did it correctly analyze the information obtained?”

The answer to the two questions in the last problem was no. For example, while it was negotiating a military alliance with Germany against the Soviet Union, Japan was surprised by the conclusion of the German-Soviet Non-Aggression Pact in August 1939.

The Japanese cabinet resigned, stating that“a complex and bizarre new situation has arisen in the European landscape.”

On lessons learned, Ishiba concludes that while civilian control of the military has been established under the Constitution and the Self-Defense Forces Act, and other institutional safeguards put in place,“these are merely systems; unless they are properly implemented, they serve no purpose...

“Politicians must maintain their pride and a sense of responsibility, refusing to yield to irresponsible populism or be swayed by the prevailing tide...

“Parliament and the media serve as checks to prevent the government from making erroneous decisions.”

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“All of these are founded on an attitude of learning from history. What matters most are the courage and integrity to squarely face the past, classical liberalism that values the tolerance of listening humbly to the arguments of others, and a healthy and robust democracy.”

Ishiba, a former minister of defense, is not a pacifist. He believes that armed forces are essential to self defense and deterrence, which“is a reality behind implementing responsible security policy under the current security environment.”

But Takaichi and other Japanese right-wingers were opposed to Ishiba's plans to deliver the speech, saying it was only his personal opinion and, as reported by the Japanese press, did not represent the government's official position.

On the other hand, the Yomiuri newspaper quoted Yuichiro Tamaki, leader of the opposition Democratic Party for the People, as saying,“It was well written. He presented new insights into the domestic system and structure that led to the war.”

Ishiba himself said,“This was not written lightly. I fully understood the responsibility of delivering it as prime minister.”

Professor Atsushi Koketsu , a Japanese military historian at Meiji University in Tokyo, put it in a larger historical context in an essay published in the China Daily at the beginning of September:

“Postwar Japan has failed to atone for the atrocities the Japanese army committed before and during World War II. On the 80th anniversary of the victory in the World Anti-Fascist War, Japan appears to be sliding back into the prewar period. This dangerous trend is fueled by US support and constraints, which have made Tokyo dependent on Washington.”

Ishiba is trying to prevent that, but right-wing Japanese politicians are known for denying historical evidence that embarrasses Japan, primary examples being the Nanjing Massacre and the“comfort women” from Korea and other countries used as sex slaves by the Imperial Japanese military.

On August 15, the actual anniversary of the end of World War II in the Pacific, Ishiba said:

“Eighty years have now passed since the war ended. Today, generations with no firsthand experience of war make up the great majority. We must never again repeat the horrors of war. We must never again lose our way. We must now take deeply into our hearts once again our remorse and also the lessons learned from that war.”

In his October 10 press conference, Ishiba said,“There is a quotation of former Prime Minister TANAKA Kakuei that I cite from time to time. He said, 'As long as those who went to that war make up the heart of this nation, Japan will do just fine. What worries me is when those people are no longer around. That's why I want young people to study the war properly.' In my view, these words are invaluable for present-day Japan.”

Writing about his August 15 speech, the Asahi newspaper reported that Ishiba“has written that the catalyst for his stance to squarely face history was a meeting he had with Lee Kuan Yew, Singapore's first prime minister.

“Ishiba recalled he was at a loss for words when Lee asked him if he knew what Japan did when it occupied Singapore during the war. Lee reminded Ishiba that even though Japanese may forget what took place, the people of Singapore will never forget.

“Ishiba wrote that he took home from that experience the fact that even though the aggressor in war may forget as time passes, the victims will never forget.”

Taking a keen interest in Ishiba's reflection on the war, China's Global Times wrote that:

“Despite his impending resignation and opposition from his party's conservative forces, outgoing Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba still delivered a personal statement on Friday to mark the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II, focusing on 'why domestic political systems were unable to brake the momentum toward war,'” according to multiple Japanese media outlets.
“Commenting on Ishiba's personal statement, Chinese experts said that the statement's significance lies in its profound reflection on the political and institutional flaws of prewar Japan. To some extent, it serves as a critique of the historical revisionism currently spreading within Japan and can be viewed as an implicit warning to right-wing conservative forces represented by Sanae Takaichi, new president of Liberal Democratic Party.

“However, given the severe lack of a comprehensive and accurate historical understanding in Japanese society, the practical impact of Ishiba's warning remains limited and is unlikely to fundamentally alter the distorted historical perspectives and revisionist tendencies prevalent in the country, experts remarked.”

The state-run newspaper, which is usually harshly critical of Japan, went on to quote Xiang Haoyu, a research fellow at the Department for Asia-Pacific Studies of the China Institute of International Studies, who said:

“Although the three previous post-anniversary statements by Japanese prime ministers contained reflections on history to varying degrees, Ishiba's focus lies on examining the 'process' that led to the war, emphasizing internal causes such as 'political failure' and 'military insubordination.' This analytical approach marks a departure from the perspectives taken by earlier political leaders.”
Another Chinese scholar, research fellow Da Zhigang of the Institute of Northeast Asian Studies at the Heilongjiang Provincial Academy of Social Sciences, told Global Times that:

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“Even if he [Ishiba] touches upon some sensitive issues, he failed to offer a sincere apology to the people of the victimized countries for the history of aggression... By avoiding direct phrasing such as war responsibility, and instead concentrating on reflections concerning Japan's civil-military relations and war mechanisms, his personal statement reflects both his cognitive constraints and a tactical choice to sidestep potentially intense controversy, which could undermine the statement's weight and impact.”

Xiang also said that:“By focusing on why Japan embarked on the path to war, he has also used historical reflection to offer implicit criticism of the rising trends of populism, insular nationalism, and exclusionism in contemporary Japanese society.

“Issuing this personal statement enables Ishiba to delineate a moderate, rational approach to history – distinct from the revisionist line advocated by conservatives like Takaichi – and secure a unique political legacy focused on historical reflection.”

Ishiba's focus on civilian control of the military, while understandable in the context of Japanese history, strikes this American writer as out of date.

The Vietnam War and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan were started, mismanaged and lost by civilian politicians and, in the case of Vietnam, by“The Best and the Brightest” civilian policymakers, as detailed by journalist David Halberstam in his highly regarded book of that name published in 1972.

In Japan today, the impetus for a steady increase in the defense budget and a more active military presence in the Asia-Pacific region comes from the objective situation and from the US, not from over-eager military officers.

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