Tuesday, 02 January 2024 12:17 GMT

Mexico's Morning Trade: A Softer Dollar, A Steady Peso


(MENAFN- The Rio Times) Mexico opened to a calm, risk-friendly backdrop. The peso hovered near 18.47 per dollar while the S&P/BMV IPC sat around 60,800 after a 0.43% dip the prior session.

The U.S. Dollar Index lingered in the high-98s-soft enough to take pressure off emerging-market currencies. The story is simple: bets that the Federal Reserve edges closer to easing have cooled the dollar.

That matters in Mexico because even if Banxico trims rates, inflation at 3.76% year over year keeps real yields positive. Foreign investors still get paid to hold peso assets, so the currency doesn't need fireworks to look attractive.

The story behind the story: when the dollar weakens, global investors can take more risk without blowing up currency hedges.

That supports Mexico's broad equity market-especially heavyweights and dividend payers-and it narrows financing costs for corporates. América Móvil's stronger third-quarter profit, helped by lower financing and FX, reinforces that narrative.



Technicals match the macro. USD/MXN remains a range trade-roughly 18.35–18.60. On four-hour charts, momentum is neutral under 18.55 resistance; on daily charts, the pair is still capped by a long-term downtrend.

For equities, the IPC is consolidating in a two-week box near 60,500–61,200 while staying well above its long-term trend support around the mid-55,000s. Breakouts-up or down-will likely follow the dollar's next move.


Early session leaders and laggards (themes):
Winners: América Móvil (earnings momentum); domestic cyclicals tied to easier rates; consumer staples benefiting from a firmer peso; high-dividend defensives favored by carry; peso-denominated bonds and proxies as real yields stay positive.

Losers: the dollar against MXN; exporters with peso-heavy costs; miners whose MXN-translated revenues compress; thin-liquidity small caps as flows stay selective; recent momentum names digesting gains.

What to watch next: fresh Fed remarks that could jolt the dollar; any Banxico guidance after the inflation print; and end-of-day ETF creations/redemptions for a clean read on foreign appetite. For now, Mexico's market is doing what strong carry trades do-quietly working while the dollar drifts.

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