(MENAFN- The Arabian Post) Ahmad Assiri

Gold has done it. Gold has reached the long-awaited $4,000 per ounce mark, a level that carries psychological and symbolic significance. This moment represents a powerful and sustained rally that began with a breakout from a lengthy consolidation phase in early September, evolving into a pivotal chapter for the market and the yellow metal. Since that breakout, gold has risen by 16%, while attempts at a pullback has remained shallow and short-lived. The price action has repeatedly shown that betting against this trend is costly. Each time prices retreat, buyers swiftly reemerge, reinforcing the view that gold continues to enjoy strong support from a wide range of investors.

Selling gold at this stage has become a high-risk endeavor for one simple reason, conviction. Institutions, central banks and retail investors alike now treat dips as a buying opportunity rather than a sign of exhaustion. One only needs to recall the $3,000 level just six months ago, reached amid the tariff headlines, to understand how sentiment has shifted. This collective behavior has created a self-reinforcing cycle where every pause in momentum is met with renewed buying. Gold has evolved from a traditional hedge during uncertainty into what could be described as a conviction trade, an asset whose value transcends price, reflecting deeper doubts about policy credibility and the erratic course of fiscal decision-making.

Drivers Behind the Rally

This rally is far from a speculative surge detached from fundamentals; rather, it stems from a rare convergence of macroeconomic forces. The Fed's move to lower interest rates even as signs of renewed growth emerge has disrupted the typical relationship between economic expansion, inflation and monetary easing. Further supporting the yellow metal, the pronounced weakness of the dollar since the start of the year has amplified the momentum behind gold's rise.

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In this context, investors are no longer choosing between risk assets and gold; they are balancing both in a world where equity valuations are stretched, long-term treasury yields are rising and uncertainty surrounding national debt sustainability.

Central banks have been at the forefront of this transition, steadily diversifying their reserves away from the dollar, creating a stable base of demand. Meanwhile, commodity funds and global macro hedge funds have expanded their exposure to gold at an increasing rate. Retail participation has also accelerated as physical demand increased alongside higher trading volumes. The result is a broad and resilient base of buyers, visible across nearly every investor radar, adding both depth and durability to the current uptrend.

Gold and the Equity Bubble-like Debate

Market discussions are increasingly centered around whether equities are entering bubble-like territory, as major indices continue to set record highs. In the midst of this debate, gold has reemerged as the natural must-have against higher valuations. For multi-asset portfolio managers, gold is no longer a supplementary option; it has become a strategic necessity for diversification and an essential buffer against potential shocks should optimism fade or macro expectations shift.

The logic is straightforward. When monetary policy remains accommodative and asset valuations stay elevated, the opportunity cost of holding gold falls sharply, while its value as an insurance asset in volatile times rises. From this perspective, gold's rally is not a rejection of optimism in equities but rather an acknowledgment of the fragility that underlies the economic outlook and the uncertainty surrounding price stability heading into 2026.

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The Road Ahead

The $4,000 level was a fast reached milestone and it is a test of broader market sentiment. Some profit-taking and tactical positioning are to be expected as traders assess the sustainability of current momentum. A limited short-term pullback could be a healthy step, allowing the market to consolidate before any renewed advance.

History, however, suggests that assets which repeatedly dismiss pullbaks tend to be supported by deep and enduring demand. Betting against gold contradicts both prevailing macro logic and the dominant technical trend. The broader environment remains supportive, underpinned by accommodative policy and sustained institutional demand across regions.

The critical question is not whether gold can hold above $4,000 but whether this level will become the new foundation for the next phase of its upward cycle. For investors waiting on the sidelines, modest pullback may be viewed not as a signal to exit, but as an opportunity to position.

Gold's message is clear. In a world where the gap between valuations and policy credibility continues to widen, gold remains the timeless asset that bridges enduring value with a renewed relevance in modern financial balance heading into 2026.

Also published on Medium .

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