Passenger volume across African airlines is forecast to reach 113 million in 2025, up from 98 million in 2024-an increase of about 15.3 %, according to the African Airlines Association. With such growth, aviation stakeholders are stepping up calls to liberalise air transport across the continent to unlock further gains.

A core mechanism in this push is the Single African Air Transport Market, conceived under African Union Agenda 2063, which aims to remove restrictive bilateral agreements and allow airlines more freedom to operate within the continent. As of mid-2025, 38 of 55 AU member states have signalled commitment to SAATM-but far fewer have translated that into enforceable national legislation.

Support for liberalisation comes from influential players. At the 2025 Aviation Africa summit, Kamil Al-Awadhi of the International Air Transport Association pressed governments to reduce barriers, cut costs, and upgrade infrastructure to catalyse airline growth. Abderahmane Berthé, Secretary General of AFRAA, similarly has argued that the continent's aviation potential remains underdeveloped due to connectivity gaps and policy inertia.

Yet, the path to open skies is uneven. In East Africa, national tensions and protectionist policies remain major obstacles. Rwanda's flag carrier RwandAir has faced route suspensions due to DR Congo's airspace restrictions, while Uganda Airlines has encountered limits on flying to Kigali despite belonging to the same economic bloc. Analysts warn such friction undercuts the very essence of an integrated aviation market.

Fleet modernisation and new entrants offer glimmers of momentum. Nigeria's civil aviation authority is exploring certification of China's COMAC C919 aircraft for domestic carriers-a step that, if realised, could diversify fleet options beyond Western manufacturers. In southern Africa, Qatar Airways is set to take a 25 % stake in South Africa's Airlink, signalling inbound investment appetite. In eastern Africa, global investors are reportedly inching toward a near-49 % holding in RwandAir, aligning airline expansion with regional integration goals.

On the policy front, regulatory reforms are underway in specific markets. Nigeria's renewed compliance with the Cape Town Convention has improved its leasing environment, making it easier for domestic carriers to access newer aircraft. Somalia, meanwhile, has reactivated the national flag carrier after 34 years of dormancy. Two Airbus A320s have been acquired, and a new international airport is under construction near Mogadishu to expand operational capacity.

Still, major structural constraints persist. High operating costs for fuel, maintenance, insurance, spare parts and currency volatility raise entry barriers for airlines operating on low-yield intra-African routes. In many markets, national airlines receive de facto protection from competition, making liberalisation politically sensitive. Visa restrictions and weak airport infrastructure deepen the challenge, forcing detours through non-African transit hubs that inflate costs and drive up airfare.

Ethiopian Airlines, Africa's largest carrier by coverage, continues to lead by example. Its CEO, Mesfin Tasew, has repeatedly urged full implementation of SAATM, stating bilateral restrictions hamper route expansion and drive up costs. As part of its Vision 2035, Ethiopian plans to nearly double its fleet and expand its destination network, signalling confidence in scalable growth under open skies.

While Africa's aviation sector draws interest from global investors and presses for regulatory reform, the balance of ambition and implementation remains delicate. Mid-term growth looks promising-but whether the continent can transform its air travel ecosystem into a truly competitive, integrated network depends on overcoming political, financial and infrastructural hurdles.

MENAFN12102025000152002308ID1110184144