Citi has revised its cryptocurrency outlook with a bold projection that Bitcoin will reach $181,000 within the next 12 months, while lowering its year-end 2025 target to $133,000 amid macro headwinds. The bank's analysts emphasise that sustained inflows from exchange-traded funds and institutional adoption will serve as the key drivers behind this forecast.

In its latest note to clients, Citi outlined a base case assuming roughly $7.5 billion of inflows into Bitcoin through ETFs and corporate digital treasuries. In its bullish scenario, that figure could accelerate, boosting the upper bound estimate to $156,000 by year-end 2025. On the other hand, if recessionary pressures intensify, the bear case puts Bitcoin as low as $83,000.

Citi trimmed its near-term outlook slightly, revising the 2025 year-end Bitcoin target downward from $135,000 to $133,000. The bank cited factors such as a stronger U. S. dollar and softer gold prices as constraining forces even as demand remains intact. Ethereum's forecast was upgraded: the bank now expects it to close 2025 at $4,500 and rise to $5,440 over 12 months. The increased optimism for Ethereum stems from its yield-producing features, staking potential and growing institutional interest.

These adjustments came amidst a backdrop of accelerating ETF inflows across asset classes. U. S.-listed ETFs have now amassed roughly $917 billion this year alone, following on from a record $1.1 trillion in the prior year. Bitcoin‐linked ETFs such as BlackRock's IBIT have contributed meaningfully to that tally, while ETFs offering derivative strategies or income-oriented profiles have also drawn substantial capital.

Market commentators point out that ETFs offer a more accessible, regulated path for institutional investors and financial advisors to gain crypto exposure. That ease of entry, combined with the liquidity and scale of Bitcoin as the“digital gold” play, underpins Citi's conviction that Bitcoin remains poised to absorb a disproportionate share of new capital entering the crypto sector.

Still, Citi emphasises that its bullish scenario depends heavily on flow continuity. Should macro conditions deteriorate-whether through tighter monetary policy, weaker risk appetite, or geopolitical stress-those inflows could slow or reverse. In such a scenario, Citi's downside targets become relevant.

Other analysts echo a cautiously bullish tone. Some foresee Bitcoin reaching $160,000 to $200,000 by year-end, citing seasonal patterns and regulatory tailwinds, especially developments in U. S. crypto policy. Others warn that high valuations and volatility could invite sharper pullbacks if sentiment weakens.

The tension between macro headwinds and structural drivers is particularly evident in Ethereum's case. Unlike Bitcoin, Ethereum supports staking and decentralized finance activity, making it more sensitive to adoption metrics and usage growth. Citi believes that those features make Ethereum increasingly appealing to yield-seeking institutions, especially as its ecosystem matures.

Crypto markets have responded positively to the outlook. Bitcoin has recently moved past $120,000 levels, reaching two-month highs, while Ethereum's price has also climbed steadily. Some of this momentum, analysts say, appears driven by ETF allocations and strong demand from institutional flows.

Arabian Post – Crypto News Network

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