Nio Stock Tumbles On Massive ES8 Demand - Buyers Told To Wait Until 2026 Amid China's EV Tax Break Wind-Down

Shares of Nio fell more than 8% in Hong Kong on Tuesday after its mobile app showed production capacity for the third-generation ES8 SUV is sold out through 2025, with delivery waits of 24–26 weeks, meaning new customers won't receive their vehicles until March 2026.

Meanwhile, Nio's U.S.-listed stock closed Monday down 6.2% at $6.91, with a further 0.2% dip in after-hours trading.

The rush comes as China's new energy vehicle (NEV) purchase tax exemption begins to phase out at year-end, raising costs for buyers whose orders slip into 2026, according to a CnEVPost report.

To reassure customers, Nio has pledged to cover any losses tied to reduced incentives and will compensate buyers 50 yuan per day for delivery delays longer than eight weeks, starting from the 57th day after order confirmation.

Unveiled at Nio Day on Sept. 20 with deliveries beginning the next day, the ES8 comes in three trims: a six-seat and seven-seat Executive Luxury Edition, beginning at 406,800 yuan ($57,180) and a six-seat Executive Signature Edition starting at 446,800 yuan. 

For Nio's Battery-as-a-Service offering, the starting prices for the trims are 298,800 yuan, 298,800 yuan, and 338,800 yuan, respectively, with a monthly 1,128 yuan rental for the 100-kWh battery, currently the only pack offered.

CEO William Li had pledged output above 40,000 units this year, with capacity reaching 10,000 units per month in October and 15,000 by December. Aggressive pricing, which is approximately 30% lower than the previous ES8, has fueled strong demand but has also quickly stretched supply.

Deutsche Bank analyst Wang Bin's team said the ES8's pricing and order conversion rates make it highly competitive, projecting average monthly sales of 11,000 units in the fourth quarter (Q4). Dealer checks revealed that more than half of the orders are already non-cancellable, indicating firm demand exceeding 50,000 units in 2025, with total reservations surpassing 100,000.

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for Nio was 'neutral' amid 'normal' message volume.

Nio's U.S.-listed stock has risen 58.5% so far in 2025.

($1=7.11 yuan)

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