2027 Nigerian Poll Could Trigger Unrest Unless Electoral Commission Is Fixed

(MENAFN- The Conversation) Political activities heralding Nigeria's 2027 general elections are beginning to pick up.

Politicians are limbering up , alliances are being whispered about , political war chests are being filled, and campaign narratives are being sharpened.

The country's rapidly growing social mobilisation (online and offline) places great demands on the electoral system. Especially the referee – the Independent National Electoral Commission .

If it can't deliver credible polls, the country risks sliding into political unrest.

In 2022, a new Electoral Act handed the commission new powers, legalised the use of election technology, and guaranteed its funding a year ahead of the polls.

But there were still reports of irregularities.

Flawed elections do more than produce disputed winners – they deepen cynicism, depress turnout, and risk violence.

Nigeria's example matters. It's Africa's largest democracy. Its electoral standards influence the region. If 2027 repeats 2023's failures, other west African leaders might feel they can treat election commissions as political tools.

My recently published research examined the factors constraining Nigeria's electoral commission from conducting credible elections and safeguarding electoral integrity, using the 2023 polls as a case study.

The study identified four issues undermining the commission's effectiveness: eroded autonomy, corruption, weak adherence to its own rules, and compromised personnel recruitment.

The commission needs legal reinforcement to shield it from state capture, improve its technological capacity, deepen civic engagement and accountability, and safeguard electoral integrity.

Why the commission struggles to deliver credible polls

For my study I interviewed senior electoral commission staff, representatives of political parties (the All Progressives Congress , People's Democratic Party and Labour Party ) and other political stakeholders. I also drew on materials from the commission's website, relevant online sources, news reports, social media content, and official documents.

Some of the key issues identified include:

1.) Independence

On paper, the electoral commission is financially independent. But the real power lies in leadership appointments, which remain in the hands of the president, subject to Senate confirmation.

In practice, appointees are often politically connected, sometimes openly partisan. Civil society groups flagged these risks ahead of 2023 , but partisan nominees still took up sensitive electoral posts.

This matters because leadership shapes decisions. The commission's abandonment of real-time result uploads in the 2023 presidential poll – a core promise – fuelled suspicions of political influence.

2.) Corruption

Politicians and insiders alike admit that electoral officials, especially temporary staff, are routinely offered and often accept cash inducements. The euphemism is“sachet water” money. The impact is serious: turning a blind eye to vote buying, altering result sheets, or simply ensuring“friendly” polling officers are assigned to strategic locations.

The 2023 polls brought fresh allegations: from officials charging voters to collect their voter cards , to attempted bribes for changing the result figures.

3.) Technology

The biggest promise of 2023 was about technology. The biometric voter accreditation system and result viewing portal were designed to stop the familiar rigging playbook: stuffing ballot boxes, falsifying tallies, and“doctoring” results. The commission told voters that presidential results would be uploaded in real time. It didn't happen.

On election day, the commission blamed“technical glitches” for the failure to upload presidential results. Oddly, the same system worked fine for National Assembly results cast the same day. Investigative journalists later uncovered glaring discrepancies between polling-unit figures and the results published on the portal.

Many believe abandoning the result viewing portal technology made it easier for the result of the 2023 presidential poll to be manipulated. This wasn't just a technical hiccup; it was a breach of legal guidelines and public trust.

4.) Workforce

The electoral commission's permanent staff is small; for a nationwide election, it leans on over a million ad hoc recruits. The recruitment process is vulnerable to political interference.

Training is inconsistent, with little formal induction for new permanent staff and ad hoc workers alike. As experienced staff retire without structured knowledge transfer, institutional memory weakens. Add in the temptation of bribes, and you have a workforce prone to both errors and manipulation.

Four reforms for a credible 2027 poll

If Nigeria is serious about credible polls, reform of the electoral commission must start now. Four priorities stand out:

1.) Merit-based leadership and staff recruitment: Remove the president's sole power to appoint the commission's top leadership. A multi-stakeholder panel should vet and nominate candidates. The commission must have a standing professional electoral service corps (career election officers) to replace the heavy reliance on temporary workers.

2.) Improve technology and enforce rule compliance: The commission needs a stronger ICT infrastructure, redundancy systems, and independent audits of its electoral technology. Publishing results promptly at the polling unit level (and protecting them from tampering) is critical. Update and integrate the voter register with biometric and national ID systems.

3.) Legal and dispute resolution: Pre-election litigation timelines should be tightened so that disputes over candidacy, party primaries and voter registration are settled well before election day. Post-election adjudication must also be concluded prior to inauguration.

Stricter penalties are necessary to end the culture of impunity surrounding electoral offences. Swift trials, stiff sanctions, and disqualification of political actors who benefit from malpractice should be enforced.

4.) Civic engagement and accountability: The commission must educate voters, particularly on issues such as vote buying, technology, and citizens' rights.

Civil society observers, media and civic tech groups should get open access and be treated as partners.

Accountability reports before, during and after elections are essential to rebuild public trust and confidence in the electoral process.

Conclusion

The race for 2027 is already on, but the real contest isn't between the parties or personalities. It's between a compromised electoral institution and the reforms needed to make it worthy of public trust.

Nigeria needs to fix the electoral commission's independence, root out its corruption, enforce its rules, and professionalise its workforce.

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