Israel-Iran War: Has Netanyahu's Gamble Reignited His Political Clout?

Israel-Iran War: In the weeks before Israel launched its strikes on Iran, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's political career was teetering. His ruling coalition, always fragile, looked ready to unravel over a long-simmering battle: the attempt to conscript ultra-Orthodox Jews into the Israeli military. It wasn't just a legal or religious issue - it threatened to collapse his government.

Domestically, the pressure was mounting. Nearly two years had passed since Hamas's unprecedented assault on Israel in October 2023, and Netanyahu was facing growing public dissatisfaction over the drawn-out conflict in Gaza. Hostages were still unaccounted for, and many felt the Prime Minister was failing to deliver the closure and security he had promised.

Internationally too, Netanyahu's position looked bleak. Once a frequent guest in Washington and European capitals, he had become increasingly isolated. Allegations of war crimes and rising Palestinian casualties had not only drawn the ire of human rights groups but also of Israel's traditional allies. Arrest warrants loomed, and sanctions were quietly being discussed.

But everything changed in one night.

Public Opinion Swings in Netanyahu's Favour 

When Israel struck Iran in what it called a pre-emptive move, it was more than just a military operation - it was a political earthquake. Netanyahu, long known for his hawkish views on Tehran, appeared to reclaim control of the narrative.

“For decades, Netanyahu has warned of the risk of a nuclear attack on Israel by Iran - a fear shared by most Israelis,” Yonatan Freeman, a geopolitics expert at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, was quoted as saying in an AFP report. And now, his long-standing warnings seemed vindicated.

The shift in public mood was swift. A conservative Israeli channel reported that 54 percent of respondents now had confidence in the Prime Minister. Even his political rivals stood behind him.

“Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is my political rival, but his decision to strike Iran at this moment in time is the right one,” opposition leader Yair Lapid admitted in a Jerusalem Post op-ed.

For many Israelis, the threat from Iran had been a cloud on the horizon for years. The moment had come, and the man leading them into the storm was suddenly not the embattled leader of yesterday - but a wartime commander who looked, to some, like the only adult in the room.

“Churchillian” Moment or Calculated Gamble? 

Netanyahu has often compared himself to Winston Churchill - the lone voice of warning before catastrophe. And right now, many in Israel seem to agree.

“Netanyahu always wants to dominate the agenda, to be the one who reshuffles the deck himself - not the one who reacts - and here he is clearly asserting his Churchillian side, which is, incidentally, his model,” Denis Charbit, a political scientist at Israel's Open University, told AFP.

That narrative isn't new, but this time it appears to be sticking. Back in October, Israel had already carried out raids deep into Iranian territory, damaging air defences and sending a message. Then-defence minister Yoav Gallant declared the strikes had“shifted the balance of power” and“weakened Iran.”

According to Charbit, Israelis have been mentally preparing for this confrontation for nearly two years.“In fact, for the past 20 months, Israelis have been thinking about this (a war with Iran),” he said.

But Charbit also issued a warning: the public mood can be volatile.“Depending on the outcome and the duration (of the war), everything could change, and Israelis might turn against Bibi and demand answers.”

War as a Political Reset 

For Netanyahu, this war may be the ultimate political reset button. Just days before the Iran operation, polls showed his Likud party in danger of losing its grip if elections were held. Now, his image has undergone a dramatic rebrand - from embattled to emboldened.

“It's very useful for Netanyahu because it silences criticism, both inside the country and abroad,” Nitzan Perelman, a researcher on Israel at the National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS) in France, explained in an AFP report.“Public opinion supports this war, just as it has supported previous ones,” she added.

The domestic calculus is clear: while economic pressures, war fatigue, and corruption charges remain, a wartime footing buys Netanyahu time - and leverage.

Silencing Dissent, Reclaiming the World Stage 

On the international front, the shift has been just as dramatic. Before the Iran war, Netanyahu was facing unprecedented criticism over Israel's Gaza campaign. More than 55,000 deaths, a humanitarian catastrophe, and an international arrest warrant had pushed even staunch allies to reconsider their support.

But two days into the Iran conflict, the phone lines lit up.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called Netanyahu. Israel's Foreign Minister Gideon Saar spoke to multiple foreign counterparts. The same countries that had begun to distance themselves were now seeing Tehran - not Tel Aviv - as the problem.

“There's more consensus in Europe in how they see Iran, which is more equal to how Israel sees Iran,” Freeman noted. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz went even further, saying Israel was doing“the dirty work... for all of us.”

To some in the West, the prospect of a weakened Iran raises the tantalising hope of a“new Middle East.” That language plays well in Washington and Berlin - and Netanyahu knows it.

Still, critics like Perelman remain wary:“Netanyahu is exploiting the Iranian threat, as he always has.”

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