Japan's Tomahawk-Like Missile Shows Fading Faith In US

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These missiles, stationed in northeastern Jilin and eastern Shandong provinces, have ranges of between 1,500 and 2,500 kilometers, covering Japan's four main islands. Additionally, the DF-26 intermediate-range ballistic missile, operational in Anhui province, extends China's strike capability to 4,000 kilometers.

Meanwhile, USNI reported in January 2025 that North Korea's hypersonic missile test that month signals its intention to strengthen strategic deterrence capabilities. State media KCNA reported that the missile traveled 1,500 kilometers at Mach 12, following a“dual peak” trajectory before falling into the Sea of Japan.

However, Japan's MOD and South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff provided contradictory data, indicating a maximum range of 1,100 kilometers and the absence of the claimed second peak.

Still, US Tomahawk missile production challenges may have influenced Japan's decision to develop a similar indigenous missile. Reuben Johnson notes in a March 2025 article for 1945 that the US Navy faces a critical shortage of Tomahawk cruise missiles due to rapid expenditure rates outpacing production capabilities.

Recent conflicts, including the 2024 Yemen strikes, depleted stockpiles, with over 80 missiles used in a single day. Industry challenges stem from fluctuating procurement demands and insufficient production rates, compounded by a“just-in-time” manufacturing model that limits surge capacity.

Efforts to expand production through exports have yet to yield significant results. Additionally, unstable demand has caused bottlenecks in key components, such as rocket motors, further delaying replenishment. Current production rates remain inadequate, with orders from 2023 expected to deliver only five missiles monthly by 2025.

In a January 2023 report for the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Seth Jones notes that in nearly two dozen simulations of a US-China war in the Taiwan Strait, the US expended 400 Tomahawk missiles in just three weeks of conflict, with a Tomahawk Block V missile taking 25 months to replace.

This potential rapid depletion of stocks may leave little to spare for allies like Japan. However, upgrading the Type 12 into a longer-range, more powerful missile presents various technical challenges, says Masashi Murano in a March 2024 article by the US Studies Center (USSC).

An improved, longer-ranged Type 12 would require a satellite data link and its existing guidance system to enable real-time flight course updates, allowing for targeting time-sensitive targets, such as transporter-erector-launchers (TELs).

An upgraded Type 12 would also need various warhead types to crater runways and destroy hardened targets such as bunkers. China and North Korea are also likely to deploy robust defenses, necessitating the acquisition of electronic warfare decoys capable of imitating the signatures of strike aircraft to deceive their adversary's defenses.

In addition, Murano points out that the long-range strike systems Japan is developing are expensive and that Japan has limited production capacity for such weapons. But to shoot far, Japan needs to see far.

In a March 2025 Breaking Defense article , Christopher Woody highlights that Japan's reliance on the US for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) remains significant, with gaps in its“kill chain” capabilities necessitating US support for target detection and tracking. This leaves the possibility that the US will withdraw those critical capabilities when Japan would need them the most.