US Bets On F/A-XX As China Air Power Races Ahead

Phelan's emphasis on the F/A-XX comes amid significant doubts about the NGAD's future. The pause on the NGAD program , driven by costs, technological hurdles and evolving airpower threats namely from China, has prompted discussions on alternative paths to air superiority.

The US is now exploring a mix of legacy fighters, collaborative combat drones and a potential revival of a light fighter concept. The NGAD's projected US$250 million-per-unit price tag has fueled skepticism, leading some officials to advocate for smaller, software-driven light fighters modeled after a scaled-down F-35 .

While this approach promises cost savings and rapid adaptability, light fighters may lack the survivability and deep-strike capabilities needed in high-intensity conflicts, particularly against China in a potential Taiwan war. That shift could also weaken the US force structure by prioritizing affordability over technological superiority.

Apart from those, the future of the F-35, the US' only fifth-generation fighter in production, may be in danger. Brandon Weichert mentioned in an article last month for The National Interest (TNI) that the Trump administration is contemplating canceling the F-35 fighter program due to its exorbitant costs and perceived obsolescence in modern warfare.

Weichert notes that the F-35, initially developed to replace aging aircraft and enhance interoperability among US military branches, has faced chronic production delays and budget overruns, with costs soaring beyond US$1 trillion. He mentions that critics, including Elon Musk, argue that the F-35 is a“jack-of-all-trades, master of none” and are advocating for a more decisive shift toward drone warfare.

Weichert says the freeze on F-35 sales to Europe and Musk's comments on the plane's supposed obsolescence have fueled speculation about the program's future. He says the F-35's high maintenance costs and the US Department of Defense's (DOD) focus on budget efficiency under the Trump administration have further jeopardized the program.

Weichert points out that only a quarter of the desired F-35 fleet has been produced and that there have been significant delays.

These woes are becoming apparent at a time when US airpower is at its lowest in the Pacific. Last month, Air & Space Forces Magazine reported that in fiscal year 2024, the US Air Force's aircraft readiness plummeted to its lowest levels in decades, with a mission-capable rate averaging 67.15%, down from 69.92% in 2023.

This decline marks the lowest rates since data tracking began, impacting legacy and modern fleets. The F-22's readiness dropped sharply to 40.19%, reflecting maintenance challenges, while the F-35A's rate increased slightly to 51.5%.

Bombers fared poorly, with all three types-B-1B, B-2, and B-52-falling below 50% mission capability. Despite significant investments, the C-5M Galaxy's rate remained low at 48.6%. The KC-46 declined to 61.05%, and the EC-130H improved to 41.97%.

Despite these woes, there are reports of NGAD progress. For instance, Defense News reported last month that the program had achieved a significant milestone by completing detailed design reviews for two proposed adaptive engines, the XA102 by GE Aerospace and the XA103 by Pratt & Whitney.

These engines, part of the Next Generation Adaptive Propulsion (NGAP) effort, are designed to provide greater range and thermal management capabilities by adjusting to the ideal thrust configuration for various situations.

Both companies are now moving forward to build prototype demonstration engines, utilizing advanced digital techniques for design and systems engineering. The US has increased each contract's maximum prototype phase value to $3.5 billion, reflecting the importance of maintaining competition and innovation.

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Yet China seems to be steadily progressing as the US stalls in next-generation airpower development. For instance, China's recent unveiling of the J-36 and J-50 next-generation fighters marked a significant leap in its military aviation capabilities, directly challenging US air superiority in the Pacific.

The J-36, developed by Chengdu Aircraft Corporation, features a tailless delta wing design and three engines, emphasizing stealth and high-speed flight.

The J-50, from Shenyang Aircraft Corporation, incorporates advanced stealth technologies and a twin-engine configuration. Both aircraft reflect China's ambition to achieve air dominance through cutting-edge designs and technological integration.

Further, Air & Space Forces Magazine reported in March 2024 that China may already be on track to having the world's largest air force.

According to the US DOD's 2024 China Military Power report , the combined People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) and People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) Aviation is the third largest air force in the world, with 3,150 aircraft, 2,400 of which are combat aircraft.

Air & Space Forces Magazine mentions that while the US produces roughly 135 F-35s annually, 60-70 planes go to its allies and partners. The report says China produces an estimated 100 J-20 airframes annually, unlike the F-22, whose production was stopped in 2011 at just 187 irreplaceable units.

The report also mentions that China produces an estimated 100 J-16 multi-role fighters and 40 J-10 low-end fighters annually. It adds that if China's production continues as projected while overcoming its dependence on Russian jet engines, it could soon surpass the US in fighter production.

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