(MENAFN- Asia Times)
SEOUL – South Korea's Political chaos, sparked by President Yoon Suk Yeol's temporary declaration of martial law and his subsequent impeachment by parliament, has shaken the nation's standing ahead of US President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration on January 20.
That's raising concerns that Seoul's negotiating leverage vis-à-vis the incoming American leader, who in his previous term called on South Korea to pay more for US troops stationed there, may be compromised at a crucial juncture for bilateral ties and the power balance on the Korean Peninsula.
“The current political crisis only dilutes South Korea's ability to forge more resilient foreign policies and to mitigate outstanding national security threats,” said Lee Chung-min, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a Washington-based think tank.
Lee noted intensifying regional security threats from China, North Korea and Russia and Trump's threatened trade wars, including with China, as key challenges for South Korea in what some see as an emerging political vacuum.
Trump's“America First” agenda and recent rhetorical lurch toward possible US expansionism in shock comments about incorporating Greenland, Panama and Canada have highlighted once again the populist leader's preference for interest-based policies over traditional alliances.
While Trump has been mum about his second-term intentions for South Korea, many experts and observers suspect he will dust off a diplomatic playbook that pressures allies to spend more on defense, thereby allowing the US to cut its military costs overseas.
In October, the US and South Korea agreed on a new five-year cost-sharing plan to maintain 28,500 American troops in South Korea, stationed to deter nuclear-armed North Korea, that raised defense costs by 8.3% to 1.52 won (US$1.13 billion) by 2026. Earlier under Biden, Seoul agreed to increase its contribution by 13.9%, its biggest annual rise in nearly two decades.
On the campaign trail, Trump suggested he would make South Korea pay much more.“If I were there now, [South Korea] would be paying us $10 billion a year, and you know what? They'd be happy to do it,” Trump said during an interview at the Economic Club of Chicago on October 15, 2024.“It's a money machine. South Korea.”
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