Crude Oil Weekly Forecast -05/01: Speculative Prices (Chart)

(MENAFN- Daily Forex) WTI Crude Oil put in a week of gains and the price of the commodity actually came within eyesight of the 74.000 USD ratio on Friday, but in rather lightly traded markets that are suspect.

WTI Crude Oil ended the week near the 73.385 ratio. The commodity traded near the 73.810 mark mid-day on Friday. The ability of WTI Crude Oil to turn in a bullish week of trading and not only sustain prices over the 70.000 USD level, but to exceed expectations and create price velocity upwards caught many speculators by surprise.

Traders who stayed away from the markets during the holiday season will look at the current price of WTI Crude Oil and be intrigued at its higher values. Retail speculators who choose to wager on the WTI Crude Oil last week in thinly traded conditions may have been hurt if they found themselves on the wrong side of the results.

Top Forex Brokers1 Get Started 74% of retail CFD accounts lose money Full Volumes and Answers Coming in WTI Crude Oil

The return of full volume to WTI Crude Oil this coming week will answer value questions rather quickly. Price action on Monday and Tuesday of this coming week will allow the large players to sort out where fair equilibrium should reside. The suspicion that WTI Crude Oil was bought heavily via speculative motives will likely be considered. If Monday's trading begins to produce a downturn in WTI Crude Oil it will not be the most surprising result.

Production and supply of WTI Crude Oil remains stable and strong. Yes, there is a rather cold winter storm brewing in the United States which might have been part of some buying on Friday before going into the weekend. Yet, that seems to be a potential that has a lot of false narrative. The main driver for the price of WTI Crude Oil going up may have more to do with programmed trading. While Friday's closing prices in the commodity were interesting, Thursday's rush higher following the New Year's holiday are suspect Intrigue and Suspicion of Speculative Forces

On Tuesday of last week WTI Crude Oil sustained prices over 71.400 for a duration, then saw a selloff create a test of the 70.500 ratio. However, then as the market started to thin out because of folks leaving for the holiday, WTI Crude Oil began to rise. Tuesday saw a late rush of buying which took the commodity near the 71.700 vicinity.

• Early trading on Thursday following the holiday saw the 72.000 mark penetrated which may have started to trigger programmed buying and a high on Thursday touched the 73.400 level, which is essentially where Friday's trading ended.
• Even though Friday saw some additional buying early momentum did not hold.
• It is possible large players took advantage of thinly traded markets, bought early and counted on triggering programmed buying around 73.000 where they might have been able to start cashing out winning positions - but this is conjecture.
• When full volumes and large traders return to their desks in the coming days, WTI Crude Oil will show where fair market prices should be demonstrated. Will it be lower?

WTI Crude Oil Weekly Outlook:

Speculative price range for WTI Crude Oil is 70.200 to 74.250

Retail traders may have to remind themselves the price of the current market is always correct, even if it feels like WTI Crude Oil is wrongly valued. The highs reached in the commodity do feel as if some market forces popped the price range higher when light volumes were being seen last week and took advantage. Smaller traders are urged to use caution early this week as large players in WTI Crude Oil demonstrate their ability to fight over the current prices which do appear higher than expected. A test of the 73.000 to 74.000 USD range on Monday could prove valuable.

A winter cold front will be hitting the U.S hard on Monday and could factor into some buying, but this may be confronted by large oil traders taking advantage and actually starting to put selling pressure on those who try to create upwards momentum. If the 73.000 level in WTI falters quickly on Monday and lower prices are established, a trend lower towards 72.000 would not be surprising. However, last week's trading certainly was bullish, and those betting against this reality early this week need to be conservative.

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