EUR/USD Analysis Today 23/12: Bearish Outlook

2024-12-23 02:22:47

(MENAFN- Daily Forex)

The past trading week witnessed a strong dominance of bears on the EUR/USD pair, with the most traded currency pair in the forex market plummeting to the support level of 1.0343, near its two-year low.
The trading closed around the 1.0428 level, with a strong dominance of bears on the trend and anticipation of a move towards the expected parity price for the euro-dollar.
The markets will be monitoring the future of the US government shutdown this week. However, holidays this week will dampen investor risk appetite.

Stock Market Turmoil with Weakening Sentiment

According to recent stock market trading and stock trading company platforms, European stocks have recently suffered a severe setback. Also, the sharp decline in shares of Novo Nordisk A/S by $93 billion weakened investor sentiment. In addition to Novo, shares of Nestle SA and LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE were also affected. Furthermore, losses in the shares of these European companies pushed the Stoxx Europe 600 index towards its worst performance compared to the S&P 500 index in nearly a quarter of a century interest rate cut for 2025

In this regard, a member of the European Central Bank's policy confirmed that it will continue to reduce borrowing costs in 2025. Croatian central bank chief Boris Vujcic added that“the trend is clear, it is a continuation of the trend from 2024, which is to reduce interest rates further.” For its part, the European Central Bank last week cut its deposit rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 3%, the fourth such move since last June. Officials indicated that more steps would follow, although they differed on how many steps would be necessary. the official added,“I don't even know at what point” the ECB will cut interest rates”. Also,“That will be determined by the data, especially the inflation rate, whether it slows down, according to our expectations, and we will see the impact of the transmission of monetary policy, our expectations.”

However, HSBC expects the ECB to be more aggressive; "We believe there is an increasing risk that the ECB will cut rates below the perceived neutral rate to stimulate the economy, and possibly even to 1.00%. Among the uncertainties weighing on the outlook is the threat of US tariffs after Trump takes office. In this regard, the official said: "If a trade war erupts, it will be bad for growth in Europe and the rest of the world," adding that trade wars usually lead to higher prices. "We hope we don't see a trade war, and it won't be good for anyone."

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Keep in mind that the Euro Dollar's path will remain bearish and stability below the 1.05 support confirms the strength of bear control. The current trading week includes Christmas holidays, which affects liquidity and investors' desire to trade/USD Analysis Today:

According to the performance on the daily chart above, the general trend of the Euro against the US Dollar EUR/USD is still bearish and Forex investors will not care about the technical indicators reaching strong oversold levels as much as they care about monitoring the negative impact factors on the Euro's performance, led by the economic and political turmoil of the bloc's largest economies and the future of the European Central Bank's policies and the future of trade wars on the region's economy, which is already suffering. The Euro Dollar's gains will remain vulnerable to a rapid collapse, so caution is required. The relative strength indicators and the MACD indicator are still in oversold areas. The future of the Euro Dollar parity price is close and the closest support levels are currently 1.0380, 1.0300 and 1.0225, respectively.

EURUSD Chart by TradingView

On the other hand, and in the same time frame, there will be no first break of the Euro-Dollar downtrend without the bulls moving towards the resistance levels of 1.0665 and 1.0800 respectively. I still prefer to sell the Euro-Dollar.

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