Anticipated Trump triumph causes demand for dollars
Date
11/6/2024 7:33:55 AM
(MENAFN) Increasing expectations that Donald trump will win the upcoming U.S. presidential election have led to a surge in demand for the dollar, according to Standard Chartered Bank. As polls show Trump in a tight race with Vice President Kamala Harris, market confidence in his potential victory has been a key driver behind the dollar’s rise in October.
Standard Chartered's calculations indicate that around 60% of the dollar’s recent gains are tied to growing bets on a Trump win. Betting markets now place the probability of a Trump victory at around 70%, with platforms like Polymarket attributing a 64% chance, and PredictIt giving him a 58% likelihood of winning.
The dollar has appreciated nearly 3% against the Euro over the past month, and it’s on track for its strongest performance since 2022. While the election outlook is a major factor, other elements such as a robust U.S. economy and strong job growth have also contributed to the greenback’s strength. In contrast, ahead of the 2020 election, expectations of a Biden win and fiscal stimulus had weakened the dollar.
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