Project 75: India's New Nuke Subs Aspire To Outmatch China

In a May 2021 article for the Delhi Policy Group, Lalit Kapur mentions that India's pursuit of SSNs stems from a strategic need to bolster its maritime deterrence and combat capabilities amid rising regional threats, particularly from China. Still the program has faced significant delays, leaving the Indian Navy's wish list unfulfilled nearly a decade after first receiving government approval in 2015.

Kapur notes SSNs have superior range, endurance and speed compared to SSKs, making them more effective for defensive and offensive operations. He notes SSNs can protect carrier battle groups, escort SSBNs and hunt enemy surface forces across global waters.

However, Kapur says India's current submarine fleet, composed mainly of aging SSKs, is insufficient to counter China's expanding naval power and increasingly assertive maritime strategy.

Despite the Indian Navy's revised 30-year plan seeking to replace six of its remaining 18 SSKs with indigenously built SSNs, bureaucratic inertia, budgetary constraints and enduring dependence on foreign collaboration continue to impede progress, Kapur asserts.

He argues that India risks falling behind in Indo-Pacific maritime power dynamics without more timely investment and faster development of SSNs, undermining its regional security and deterrence posture.

Specifications of India's planned SSNs remain vague and are perhaps even classified. However, Indian Defense Research Wing (IDRW) mentions in an April 2024 article that India's SSNs are known to displace 6,000 tons and aim to be equipped with advanced targeting systems and versatile arsenals to support various operations.

These include anti-submarine warfare, anti-surface warfare, strike missions, special operations, mine warfare, subsea seabed warfare, and intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR).

IDRW mentions that the integration of patrol aircraft and unmanned aerial vehicles will enhance India's situational awareness and precision strike capabilities. The report emphasizes that the adoption of cutting-edge propulsion technology focusing on pump jet propulsion systems pioneered by France is key to the SSN program.

Asia Times reported in June 2024 that India's Project Varsha submarine base in the Bay of Bengal may be central to its bastion strategy in the Indian Ocean. The base offers more advantageous cover than the busy waters of the Arabian Sea in potential conflicts with Pakistan and China and will enable India's SSBNs to enter the Bay of Bengal without being detected by satellites and aircraft.

India's SSNs will likely operate in
the Bay of Bengal, escorting SSBNs and allowing them to launch SLBMs at Pakistani and Chinese targets from this secure area.

Asia Times reported in May 2024 that India is also advancing plans for a third aircraft carrier to bolster its naval capabilities against potential threats from Pakistan and China in the Indian Ocean. The move aims to ensure India can maintain continuous maritime security with two carriers at sea while one undergoes maintenance.

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The Indian Navy's carrier-centric approach focuses on sea control and denial strategies vis-à-vis Pakistan and China. However, the initiative faces challenges, including funding, technical hurdles and the need for advanced training facilities. Despite India's SSN ambitions, the vessels may not be ready until the 2030s, by which time it may be difficult to overcome China's growing presence and naval might in the Indian Ocean.

The US Department of Defense's 2023 China Military Power report states that China's People's Liberation Army–Navy (PLAN) is the world's numerically largest navy, with 370 ships and submarines and 140 major surface combatants. The report says that the PLAN is expected to grow to 390 ships by 2025 and 435 ships by 2030, with much of that growth in major surface combatants.

In June 2024, Asia Times reported
that China is expanding its military presence in the Indian Ocean, raising concerns of encirclement in India. China can launch warships from its base in Djibouti into the Indian Ocean and is known to be seeking base access agreements in Sri Lanka and Myanmar. China's potential bases at Gwadar in Pakistan and Hambantota in Sri Lanka could also improve its naval reach in the region.

However, China still faces significant logistical and political challenges to projecting power in the Indian Ocean, namely its reliance on civilian assets for logistics and its partner countries' reluctance to grant full military basing access. But China's push underscores its broad ambition to secure maritime trade routes and bolster its Indian Ocean position, to India's detriment and trepidation.

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