China's Stealth Missile Sub Key To Winning A Taiwan War

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Victor Sussman mentions in an October 2019 Proceedings article that adding VLS to submarines enhances their offensive capabilities against well-defended surface combatants.

Sussman points out that during the Rim of the Pacific 2018 naval exercise, the USS Olympia successfully utilized a submarine-launched anti-ship cruise missile (SLASCM), underscoring the strategic value of stealthy submarines as formidable ASCM platforms.

He mentions that the possible integration of VLS-compatible missiles could significantly increase submarine salvo size, offering a tactical advantage in saturation attacks. Such missiles currently in Chinese service include the YJ-18 ASCM , CJ-10 land attack cruise missile (LACM) , and the YJ-83 ASCM .

Sussman emphasizes the importance of numerical superiority in salvo exchanges, suggesting that larger salvos improve the likelihood of neutralizing enemy units.

He notes that the future of submarine warfare is poised for a transformation, with VLS-armed submarines positioned to deliver more effective first strikes and maintain a tactical edge in the increasingly contested maritime domain.

China's rapidly advancing conventional submarine fleet enables it to carry out complex blockades and first strikes, potentially altering the balance in a Taiwan conflict and complicating allied intervention.

In a Baker Institute report this month, Gabriel Collins and Andrew Erickson mention that China's conventional submarines would play a crucial role in establishing maritime control and exerting strategic pressure on Taiwan and its allies in a potential conflict over Taiwan.

Collins and Erickson suggest stealthy submarines could be crucial in isolating Taiwan and deterring foreign intervention, complicating efforts to secure communication lines.

They say China's submarines could disrupt Taiwan's supply movement and enhance its anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) strategy, making it harder for the US and its allies to intervene effectively in the Taiwan Strait.

In the South China Sea, Edward Feltham mentions in an October 2023 article for the Naval Association of Canada that China's conventional submarines play a critical role in its maritime strategy, particularly in executing a sea denial strategy within the First Island Chain.

Feltham says that the PLA-N's modernization has significantly focused on enhancing the capabilities of its diesel-electric submarines (SSKs), such as the Yuan-class, which are equipped with advanced Air-Independent Propulsion (AIP) systems.

He notes that submarines are designed for operations in the shallow, contested waters of the South China Sea, where their stealth and endurance are highly advantageous.

He points out that the primary role of these submarines would be to prevent adversaries from gaining control over critical maritime areas, using torpedoes and anti-ship cruise missiles to target enemy vessels.

Feltham also mentions that they could be deployed for intelligence gathering, surveillance and covert operations, providing China with a potent deterrence and active engagement tool.

As China's submarine fleet expands to assert dominance in its adjacent waters, regional powers are rapidly bolstering their underwater capabilities, setting the stage for an underwater arms race.

In a June 2024 article for Breaking Defense, Christopher Woody mentions that countries across the Indo-Pacific region are intensifying their focus on undersea warfare capabilities in response to China's rapid military modernization, particularly its expanding submarine fleet.

Woody says that Taiwan's unveiling of its first domestically assembled Hai Kun-class submarine , with the assistance of undisclosed foreign partners, marks a significant step in its efforts to bolster defenses against potential Chinese aggression.