(MENAFN- AzerNews)
Nazrin Abdul
Read more
As a result of the strategic policies implemented in Azerbaijan,
the country has emerged as one of the most advanced globally, with
economic growth on an upward trajectory.
At a press conference held at the Central bank of Azerbaijan
(CBA), Taleh Kazimov, Chairman of the institution, projected that
Azerbaijan's economic growth for this year is expected to be
3.5-4%, with a notable 5.5-6% increase anticipated in the non-oil
and gas sector. Kazimov confirmed that the July forecasts remain
unchanged from those made in April.
Looking ahead to next year, the country's gross domestic product
(GDP) is anticipated to grow by 2-2.5%, with the non-oil and gas
sector expected to expand by 4-5%. Updated projections suggest that
real GDP growth in 2024 will reach 3.8%, amounting to 121.3 billion
manats in nominal terms, including a non-oil GDP of 84.7 billion
manats. The growth rate observed in the non-oil and gas sector
during the first half of the year is expected to continue, leading
to an increase in the forecast for real GDP growth in this sector
from 4.6% to 5.5%.
Kazimov also provided insights on global commodity prices,
noting that the average price of a barrel of oil is expected to be
$84.90 this year, while the price of 1,000 cubic metres of natural
gas is projected to be $290.10. For 2025, the forecasts are $83.80
per barrel of oil and $233.50 per 1,000 cubic metres of natural
gas.
The average annual export price of crude oil, initially set at
$60 per barrel for the 2024 state budget, has been revised to $75
per barrel. This revision reflects the anticipated decrease in
crude oil supply and prices, as predicted by the International
Monetary Fund (IMF). The positive expectations for Azerbaijan's
non-oil and gas sector are contributing to higher economic growth
forecasts compared to previous years.
The continued growth in Azerbaijan's non-oil and gas sector,
along with positive economic forecasts for key trading partners, is
expected to bolster the country's economic performance. Growth in
natural gas exports is anticipated, driven by increasing demand in
several European countries, including Greece, Serbia, Bulgaria, and
Italy. Additionally, the expected economic growth in Turkiye,
Russia, Georgia, and Kazakhstan will further support Azerbaijan's
non-oil and gas exports and attract direct foreign investments.
Overall, the acceleration of global economic growth is
positively impacting the economies of the Middle East and Central
Asia, including Azerbaijan. The projected economic growth for the
region stands at 2.8% for 2024 and 4.5% for 2025, with the Caucasus
and Central Asia group expected to see a growth rate of 3.9% for
2024.
Initially, the forecast for average annual inflation in
Azerbaijan for 2024 was set at 5.3%. However, this forecast has
been revised down to 2.7%. The International Monetary Fund (IMF)
maintained its global growth forecast for 2024 at 3.2% in its July
update, unchanged from its April estimate. In contrast, the World
Bank (WB) adjusted its global growth forecast upward by 0.2
percentage points to 2.6% in June.
The first half of 2024 has been marked by geopolitical and
geoeconomic tensions, commercial fragmentation, price fluctuations
in global commodity markets, and diminishing disinflationary
pressures, contributing to uncertainty in global economic
expectations.
According to recent forecasts from international financial
institutions, the average annual price of crude oil is expected to
range between $75.00 and $85.00 per barrel.
The World Bank's June report on Europe and Central Asia, titled
"Increasing the Power of the Private Sector," forecasts
Azerbaijan's economic growth at 2.3% for 2024, with slight
increases to 2.4% in both 2025 and 2026. This represents a decrease
of 0.1 percentage points in GDP growth rates for 2024-2025 compared
to the January forecast. The report also notes that economic growth
in the South Caucasus is expected to stabilise at around 3.5% from
2024 to 2026.
In conclusion, the revised inflation forecast for Azerbaijan in
2024 reflects a significant improvement, dropping from an initial
estimate of 5.3% to 2.7%. This adjustment aligns with broader
global economic projections, where the IMF has kept its growth
forecast steady at 3.2% while the World Bank has slightly increased
its global growth estimate to 2.6%. Despite ongoing geopolitical
and economic uncertainties, including fluctuations in global
commodity prices, these forecasts provide a more stable
outlook.
For Azerbaijan, the World Bank's report highlights a modest
growth forecast of 2.3% for 2024, with a gradual increase expected
in the following years. The slight downward adjustment in growth
projections compared to earlier estimates, alongside the
stabilisation of growth in the South Caucasus region, indicates a
period of cautious optimism. Overall, while global and regional
economic conditions remain complex, the revised forecasts suggest a
more favourable economic environment for Azerbaijan and its
neighbouring countries in the near term.
MENAFN01082024000195011045ID1108503597
Legal Disclaimer:
MENAFN provides the information “as is” without warranty of any kind. We do not accept any responsibility or liability for the accuracy, content, images, videos, licenses, completeness, legality, or reliability of the information contained in this article. If you have any complaints or copyright issues related to this article, kindly contact the provider above.