US Scrambling To Restock Missiles For Possible Taiwan War

In a January 2023 report for the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) think tank, Seth Jones cautions that the US may face a munitions shortfall in a potential conflict with China, particularly for long-range PGMs. Jones suggests this could hinder the US's ability to sustain a protracted war in the Taiwan Strait.

Jones notes that China's rate of acquiring high-end weapons systems is estimated to be five to six times faster than the US, raising concerns about the readiness of the US defense industrial base.

He highlights that it can take two years to replace certain missile types, such as the Patriot PAC-2/PAC-3, Tomahawk Block V, Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile (JASSM) and Precision Strike Missile (PSM).

Jones mentions that CSIS war games suggest that in a three-week conflict, the US would exhaust over 5,000 long-range missiles, with critical shortages occurring within the first week.

Further, an October 2023 US Congressional Research Service (CRS) report states that significant consolidation in the US defense industry may have weakened competition, potentially leading to higher costs and less innovation.

The CRS report points out that dependence on a small number of suppliers, especially for complex systems like PGMs, poses risks of supply disruption and national security concerns.

It also says that the US relies on strategic and critical materials from foreign sources, which could jeopardize the production and supply of precision-guided munitions in times of conflict.

In response to possible shortfalls in US PGM production capacity, the US has considered co-production with critical allies such as Japan and Australia.

In March 2024, the US Department of Defense (DOD) reported that the US is intensifying efforts to bolster defense production capabilities in collaboration with allies.

The report says that William LaPlante, US undersecretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment, highlighted the Ukraine war as a catalyst for enhanced multinational cooperation in manufacturing critical munitions before the US Senate Appropriations Committee's Defense Subcommittee.

The DOD says the US
is expanding this cooperative model to include the Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS) and PSM munitions, with plans to co-develop missile defense interceptors alongside Japan.

It notes that this strategic shift aims to fortify allied defense industrial bases, particularly in response to Russia's increased military spending, estimated now at 7% of GDP, and China's surge in military output under its military-civil fusion development strategy.

In a March 2024 New York Times article , Damien Cave reported that the US is partnering with Australia to ramp up the production of precision-guided munitions.

Cave mentions that the DOD and US and Australian defense manufacturers are teaming up to produce artillery shells and guided missiles, such as the GMLRS, to US DOD specifications.

He states that these weapons will replenish US stockpiles and be available for sale to allies, noting that simultaneous wars in Ukraine and Gaza have strained US munitions stockpiles.

Cave notes that Australian production facilities for US munitions are located in the former's expansive interior, with the Benalla munitions factory and Mulwala explosives factory playing key roles.

However, Japan's and Australia's defense industries face challenges in ramping up PGM production including small and aging workforces and insufficient production bases.

In a June 2024 Breaking Defense article , Valerie Insinna mentions that Japan's defense industry is grappling with an aging workforce and a shrinking supply chain.

Sign up for one of our free newsletters

• The Daily Report Start your day right with Asia Times' top stories
• AT Weekly Report A weekly roundup of Asia Times' most-read stories

To address those challenges, Insinna notes that Japan's defense industry is undergoing revitalization through the“Act on Enhancing Defense Production and Technology Bases” passed in June 2023.

The law allocates funding to defense contractors and their supply chains and rewards meeting goals, tackles issues related to low revenue and encourages advancements in cybersecurity and manufacturing productivity.

However, Insinna points out that these reforms may be too little, too late in the current volatile strategic landscape. She also says Japan's defense industry faces additional challenges such as labor shortages due to an aging population and the need to integrate modern technologies like AI and robotics.

In a Defense News article this month, Gordon Arthur says that the Australian government's preference for large foreign contractors such as Lockheed over domestic small and medium enterprises (SMEs) hinders Australia's domestic capability to produce long-range PGMs.

Arthur notes Australia doesn't have a clear path for the gradual indigenization of PGM production, moving from large contractors such as Lockheed to Australian SMEs.

He notes rising calls on the Australian government to allow SMEs to demonstrate their capabilities and consider the strategic need for an indigenous defense industry capable of responding to future conflicts.

Already have an account? Sign i Sign up here to comment on Asia Times stories OR

Thank you for registering!

An account was already registered with this email. Please check your inbox for an authentication link.