(MENAFN- AzerNews)
gas Imports: Analyzing Impact & Future Trends Image' Width='242' Height='268'/>
Ulviyya Shahin
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In the previous year, Azerbaijan exported 11 billion cubic
meters of Natural gas to the European Union (EU), as detailed in
the European Commission's report for the last quarter of 2023.
As a result, Azerbaijan's share of the EU's natural gas imports
rose from 3% (8 billion cubic meters) to 7% in 2021.
The EU imported 290 billion cubic meters of natural gas and
consumed 330 billion cubic meters last year, reflecting decreases
of 13.4% and 7.3% compared to the previous year, respectively.
The EU reduced its natural gas imports from its primary
supplier, Russia, by 3.5 times, from 150 billion cubic meters to 43
billion cubic meters in 2023. This reduction was driven by
sanctions imposed due to the Russia-Ukraine war and unusually high
seasonal temperatures.
In 2023, the EU's natural gas production fell by 19.1% from the
previous year to 38 billion cubic meters, accounting for 11% of its
consumption. The Netherlands (12 billion cubic meters) and Romania
(9.3 billion cubic meters) were the largest producers within the
EU. Additionally, the EU's storage capacity utilization increased
by 18 percentage points from the previous year, reaching 79%
compared to 49% in 2021.
Certainly, the reasons that can justify the numbers given here
still raise certain questions. For example, the increasing share of
Azerbaijan's gas exports in ensuring the energy security of the
European Union, or the reduction of dependence on Russian gas
against the background of the EU's growing reliance on Azerbaijan
and other sources. All these facts are real facts reflected in the
recent meetings of President Ilham Aliyev with the leading
representatives of European Union countries.
On the other hand, in the backdrop of the ongoing conflict,
geopolitical realities, as well as climate policy, the matter of
how the European Union's natural gas import will continue, raises
some questions.
We decided to refer to the opinion of an economic expert to
analyse and study the issue more deeply.
Thus, speaking to Azernews on the issue,
economist Natig Jafarly stated that Azerbaijan is particularly
important for Eastern and Southern European countries because they
are more dependent on Russian gas.
"In terms of volume, Azerbaijani gas is not very large. Europe's
annual consumption is 500 billion cubic meters, and Azerbaijani gas
constitutes only a small part of that. However, the most important
aspect is that Azerbaijani gas plays a crucial role in the energy
security of Eastern and Southern European countries, which are
small countries that depend almost entirely on Russian gas. This is
also true for the energy security of other small EU countries. It
should be noted that after 2027, Azerbaijan will begin supplying 20
billion cubic meters of gas to Europe. This is a larger volume and
represents more significant support for the EU's energy security,
as gas consumption in Europe is not decreasing but rather
increasing. Before the war, Russia exported 178 billion cubic
meters of gas to Europe; now, it has decreased to only 35-40
billion cubic meters, a more than fourfold decrease. One of the gas
sources that can replace this and is considered the most reliable
partner is Azerbaijan."
"Expectations were low for Azerbaijan because higher gas
revenues were anticipated. However, the price of gas did not reach
the expected levels. When Azerbaijan started exporting gas, the
price of 1,000 cubic meters in Europe was over a thousand dollars.
Now, this price has dropped to $300. Despite this, it will still
bring additional billions in gas revenues to Azerbaijan," the
economist added.
According to N. Jafarly, Azerbaijan is taking steps to
transition to a more diversified model, and its outlines are
already visible.
"Azerbaijan's gas infrastructure does not consist solely of its
own gas. Azerbaijan has a decisive stake in the TANAP and TAP
pipelines, and there are discussions about delivering Iraqi gas
through these pipelines, as well as gas that may be produced from
Egypt in the future, and even from Israel, via Turkey to Europe
using infrastructure built by Azerbaijan. If the TANAP and TAP
projects operate at full capacity, about 33-34 billion cubic meters
of gas can be delivered to Europe, which would significantly
address the excess demand of the European Union," he noted.
"Regarding climate change, the European Union has already
declared natural gas a climate-friendly energy source. Previously,
gas production was considered air-polluting, but the situation has
now changed. There is now a consensus in the European Union to
allocate both subsidies and support to gas projects, viewing gas as
an environmentally friendly energy source," Jafarly concluded.
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