China, US In War Of Words As Japan Updates Defense

The weekend saw verbal fireworks aplenty at the region's premier security forum as China and the US clashed over their security visions for the region. Meanwhile, Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida openly announced a shift away from his nation's customarily cautious post-1945 security stance, vowing to upgrade his forces' capabilities, reach and activities.

He made clear his“severe” sense of new perils.“I myself have a strong sense of urgency that 'Ukraine today may be East Asia tomorrow,'” he said. Hence, Tokyo will massively up its defense spend.

While Kishida was the senior speaker at Singapore's Shangri-La Dialogue, the main battleground was between the Chinese and US defense chiefs. General Wei Fenghe and Lloyd Austin sparred over regional security architectures: While Austin talked up its web of partnerships, Wei accused the US of shutting China out.

But although they offered differing views of the South China Sea, their positions on Taiwan appeared – perhaps surprisingly – more aligned.

Following its catastrophic defeat in World War II, trammeled by its US-authored pacifist constitution, Tokyo has customarily been a cautious player on security.

However, faced with a nuclear-armed North Korea and an increasingly assertive and expeditionary-capable China, it has been quietly transitioning its doctrines and upgrading its“self-defense” forces in recent years. To grant itself political room for maneuver, Tokyo“reinterpreted” the pacifist Article 9 of its constitution in 2014.

Speaking in Singapore, Kishida formalized this creeping transition , adopting a bolder stance. “We will be more proactive than ever in tackling the challenges and crises that face Japan, Asia, and the world,” he said.

He urged against misinterpretation.“Japan's posture as a peace-loving nation will remain unchanged,” he said.“Our efforts will proceed within the scope of our constitution and in compliance with international law.”

“We will set out a new national security strategy by the end of this year,” he said.“I am determined to fundamentally reinforce Japan's defense capabilities within the next five years and secure substantial increase of Japan's defense budget needed to effect it.”

Last week, his Cabinet committed – albeit, in a document camouflaged with bureaucratic terminology – to doubling the world's third largest economy's defense budget, currently set at 1% of GDP, to the NATO standard of 2% within five years.

His new strategy“will not rule out any options, including so-called 'counterstrike capabilities,'” Kishida said.

The latter was almost certainly a reference to deterrents against North Korea and/or Chinese missile assets. He also made abundantly clear where among neighboring countries his sympathies lie.

“No country can ensure its security entirely on its own,” Kishida said.“That is why I will promote multilayered security cooperation with like-minded countries that share universal values, positioning the Japan-US Alliance as the linchpin.”

With Chinese assets deeply entrenched in the South China Sea, dominant in the Taiwan Strait and operational in the Indian Ocean, Kishida added,“to contribute to the realization of a free and open maritime order Japan will dispatch a Maritime Self-Defense Force unit led by the destroyer Izumo to the Indo-Pacific region from June 13 and conduct joint exercises with countries in the region including Southeast Asia and the Pacific.”

The“destroyer” is, in fact, an F-35 capable light aircraft carrier.

With“grey-zone” confrontations, often featuring Chinese fishing fleets, adding to regional blue-water naval competition, Kishida – who in May signed a defense-equipment and investment deal with Thailand – said he would be supplying nations with littoral defense assets. Tokyo's overseas development assistance (ODA) will fund the effort.

“I will lay out a 'Free and Open Indo-Pacific Plan for Peace' by next spring,” Kishida said,“with an emphasis on providing patrol vessels and enhancing maritime law enforcement capabilities.”

Japan's maritime security is backed by satellite, artificial intelligence and drone technologies, Kishida said – and it will offer aid in these areas .

“Over the next three years we will make use of technical cooperation, training and other means conducive to strengthening the maritime law-enforcement capabilities of at least 20 countries to promote efforts to train at least 800 maritime security personnel,” he said.

Hardware will also come online.“We will provide at least approximately US$2 billion in assistance, such as the provision of maritime security equipment including patrol vessels and development of maritime transportation infrastructure, to Indo-Pacific countries over the next three years.”

Although he did not specify the countries, Japan has long been engaged in economic competition with China in Southeast Asia – a competition also ramping up in Oceania.

US Defense Secretary Lloyd , too, will be upgrading regional littoral capabilities.“We are also working more closely with our partners in ways that are not quite so visible,” he said.“That includes tackling grey-zone actions that chip away at international laws and norms.”

He accused Chinese vessels of plundering regional resources“within the territorial waters of other Indo-Pacific countries.” Those countries, Austin asserted,“should not face political intimidation, economic coercion or harassment by maritime militias.”

The US Coast Guard Commandant, Admiral Linda Fagan, joined the forum“in a sign of how important Southeast Asia is to the Coast Guard,” Austin said. Next year, that force will permanently station its first cutter in Southeast Asia and Oceania. That“will open up new opportunities for multinational crewing, training and cooperation across the region.”

Austin also referred to the Indo-Pacific Partnership for Maritime Domain Awareness, announced by President Joe Biden in Tokyo last month.

The mechanism“aims to provide better access to space-based and maritime domain awareness to countries across the region, including here in Southeast Asia,” Austin said. It will coordinate“regional information centers that will help us build a common operating picture … to tackle illegal fishing and other grey-zone activities.”

Despite an ongoing war in Europe, Washington is prioritizing Asia.

“More members of the US military are stationed here than in any other part of the world – more than 300,000,” hAustin said. Calling Indo-Pacific“the heart of American grand strategy,” he said,“No region will do more to set the trajectory of the twenty-first century than this one.”

The US approach to the region is security management via networked alliances, partnerships and exercises. Washington maintains self-defense treaties with Australia, Japan, the Philippines, South Korea and Thailand while also heading the Quad security grouping and the more recently convened AUKUS.

“We are also weaving closer ties with other partners and I am especially thinking of India, the world's largest democracy,” he said, noting that, last year a US carrier strike group rotated through the Indian Ocean.

That is just part of a vast network of regional exercises.“We have stepped up the complexity, the jointness and the scale of our combined exercises with our allies and partners,” Austin said.

These include: Keen Sword exercises with Japan; Talisman Saber exercises with Australia (as well as Canada, Japan, New Zealand, South Korea and the UK); Balikatan exercises with the Philippines, Garuda Shield exercises with Indonesia and 12 other countries; and RIMPAC with 26 countries.

Moreover, the US“will deepen and widen the dialogue and cooperation among NATO and our core Indo-Pacific allies,” he said, referring to last year's regional deployment by a British-led carrier group.

Kishida, too, approved of extra-regional players including the EU, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom laying out their“visions” for Indo-Pacific.

“Like-minded partners are each taking action on their own initiative, not at the behest of others,” Japan's premier said.“This is the very concept of a 'Free and Open Indo-Pacific,' which is based on inclusiveness.”

China's representative was unimpressed.

“We countries in this region must stay vigilant and prevent some countries outside this region from meddling in the affairs of our region,” Minister of National Defense Wei said.

More broadly, the uniformed and bemedalled general argued against alliance networks, and for supra-national organizations.

“We must say 'No' to exclusive blocs,” Wei said.“We must observe basic norms governing international relations enshrined in the purposes and principles of the UN charter.” He added:“We should uphold sovereign equality of all nations.”

He railed against Washington.“We require the US side to stop smearing and containing China, stop interfering in China's internal affairs and stop harming China's interests,” he said.

He accused Washington of seeking to isolate Beijing within the region.

“We noticed Secretary Austin's remarks,” he said.“To us, the strategy is an attempt to build an exclusive small group in the name of a 'Free and Open Indo-Pacific' to hijack countries in our region and target one specific country.”

He also took a swing at Western sanctions regimens and US exceptionalism.

“Say 'No' to unilateral sanctions and long-armed jurisdictions,” he said.“One is not in a position to champion any international law, rule or order if it only follows rules that fit its interests.”

He cited China's supply of anti-Covid vaccines, as well as peacekeeping activities, as proof of its good faith in global affairs.

Beijing,“has sent nearly 50 000 peacekeepers to UN Peace Keeping missions – more than the total sent by the other permanent members of the UN Security Council,” he said.

“China has sent over 120 naval vessels on maritime escort missions and provided protection for more than 7,000 Chinese and foreign ships.”

But he warned that as the PLA muscles up – it is massively upgrading its nuclear capabilities and the launch of its third fleet aircraft carrier is imminent – China is ready to use what it has.

“We will not allow others to bully us,” he said.“If anyone dares to attack us the PLA will not hesitate to fight back and defeat the aggressor.”

However, he also stated that China has a doctrine of no first use.“China's policy on nuclear power is consistent: We use it for self-defense, we will not first be the first to use nuclear power,” Wei said.

Two regional hot spots – the South China Sea and Taiwan – were inevitably subject to discussion.

In the heavily used international waterways of the former, the concept of“freedom of navigation,” or FON, has become a pinball between both sides.

“China respects FON enjoyed by all countries under international law,” Wei said.“China is one of the biggest beneficiaries of FON in this area; if it were hampered in the South China Sea, China would suffer the most because without FON, China's economy would hardly grow.”

And indeed, merchant shipping flows – of container ships and energy tankers – in the area remain unhindered.

However, Chinese forces have unilaterally occupied and weaponized a range of disputed reefs and islets in the area. This had led the US and other countries to send warships and warplanes to challenge Chinese area control with FON operations (“FONOPs”).

China“is using outposts on man-made islands bristling with advanced weaponry to advance its illegal maritime claims,” Austin said. He added that in recent weeks, Chinese fighters“have conducted a series of dangerous intercepts of allied aircraft operating lawfully in the East China and South China Seas.”

Wei shot back, calling US FONOPs a“rampage.”“Some big power has long practiced navigation hegemony on the pretext of FON,” he said.

Yet on another flashpoint territory the two sides were less far apart, even though that territory – Taiwan – is a red button issue for Beijing.

The emotion surrounding it was reflected in the predictably florid language Wei deployed.

“We will resolutely crash any attempt to pursue Taiwan's independence,” Wei said.“Let me make this clear: If anyone dares to secede Taiwan from China we will not hesitate to fight -– we will fight at all costs and we will fight to the very end. This is the only choice for China.”

He made clear he was referring to local, not overseas, independence forces:“The United States fought a civil war for its unity – though China never wants such a civil war.”

Even so, he warned,“foreign interference is doomed.”

That reference looks to be aimed at the US.

Last month in Tokyo Biden had said that Washington had a“commitment” to“defend Taiwan militarily” – a statement swiftly talked back by White House officials, thereby maintaining customary strategic ambiguity.

Austin's perspective on Taiwan, in his prepared remarks, was less combative.

While noting that“the stakes are especially stark in the Taiwan Strait,” and that“we see growing coercion from Beijing,” Austin said US policy remains static.

“It has been consistent across administrations and we are determined to uphold the status quo that has served this region so well for so long,” he said.“So let me be clear, we remain firmly committed to our long-standing One-China policy.”

While there are forces within Taipei's polity that favor declaring de jure independence, the One-China Policy acknowledges that Taiwan is part of China. This suggests that any US military moves around Taiwan would be reactive, not proactive.

“We categorically oppose any unilateral changes to the status quo from either side,” Austin said.“And we do not support Taiwan independence.”

Near the close of his remarks, Wei sent what may have been a signal for better military-to-military communication.

“The Chinese and US military should enhance strategic trust, avoid misunderstanding and miscalculation, manage risks and crises, and prevent frictions and conflicts,” he suggested.“China hopes to have a sound, steady and growing relationship with the United States.”

The annual Shangri-La Dialogue is arranged by the think tank International Institute for Security Studies, or IISS. As the region's top security forum, inviting guests at the ministerial level and above, it provides a rare opportunity for open discussion, reporters' questions and sideline meetings.

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