Can the Syrians Take Lead in Sochi?By Fahed Khitan

(MENAFN- Alghad Newspaper)

A new round of negotiations is set to launch, only this time it will be in Vienna, not Geneva. Not much is expected to come from it. At least not as much as is expected to come out of the Sochi convention of the National Syrian Conference later this month,

More than 1,500 Syrian figures are partaking in the conference, alongside representatives of various Arab and foreign countries.

Notably, the upcoming conference is sponsored jointly by Russia, Iran and Turkey.

Technically speaking, it is an outcome of the Astana process, not Geneva. Despite Russia's reaffirmation, that Sochi is not a substitute to the Geneva process. However, the accomplishments of the Astana negotiations could tempt the three sponsors to move past Geneva, nonetheless, towards a consensual settlement to the Syrian crisis.

The complications of the Syrian situation, regardless, do not indicate a fundamental shift in the political discourse is at hand! We still do not know what will come out of the Sochi convention. Will it be a ceremonial event or will it pave for consensus over the new Syrian constitution and the legislative elections to secure a future for Syria after eight years of bloodshed?

The Russians are practical. This was evident in their approach to the Syrian situation. But the United States did not withdraw from the Syrian scene yet!

In fact, the most recent diplomatic assessments indicate that Washington has every intention to reinforce its diplomatic and field presence in Syria.

On the field, the current givens are not promising.

Nothing indicates a consensus is underway between the forces conflicting in Syria. Meanwhile, Turkey has —with the blessings of Russia and Iran— forced itself in Syria militarily to dismantle the Kurds and bury their dream of an independent entity by its borders.

The Afrin military operation is a good example of what the regional and international struggle could result in!

In the meantime, Washington, the Kurds' only ally, while unable to step in, will not allow for their exclusion from the unfolding equation.

The US may very well pursue its goals by setting up its border guard forces project to reinforce itself in Syria. More so, it is likely Washington will support the Kurds in their struggle to safeguard their rights in any upcoming political settlement.

Western states, as well as Arab states holding on to the Geneva process, are trying hard to reroute the Sochi process through the failed Geneva process between the regime and Syrian opposition. Unable to influence the course of Syrian events, especially in the absence of the US, they find themselves spectating a trilaterally beneficial Russo-Turkish-Iranian effort, with tangible prospects to succeed.

Those three countries are shaping the Syrian scene to their advantage and interests!

Post-Sochi, however, will an independent national conference be launched, away from the interference of foreign powers?

Syrians, for the first time since the crisis began, have a vast and significant representation.

While this conference may very well be taking place outside of Syria, it does offer a unique opportunity to reflect on the future of the country. This could platform a national agenda that places Syria on the right track towards recovery!

The terms of the proposed consensus, a new constitution and legislative elections, are not difficult to meet.

With just some determination and agreement on the basis of Syria's unity and sovereignty, it can be achieved.

In other words, the Syrians in Sochi can really turn the whole thing around and take lead of e new discourse that could resolve their crisis. One that overcomes both Astana and Geneva, along with every other power racing for the exploits, so nearly ripe for the taking!

This article is an edited translation of the Arabic version, published by AlGhad.

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