The Iran War Doesn't Immediately Jeopardize Taiwan

Latest stories US-China space race shifts into a higher lunar gear Kharg struck as Trump threatens to wipe out Iranian civilization US diverts JASSM-ER missiles to Iran, risking deterrence vs China

There is an argument that America's“embrace of a 'might is right' doctrine,” manifested in US actions against Iran and Venezuela“could be interpreted as a green light by Xi” to launch a war of conquest against Taiwan.

This is wrong. Beijing does not peg its policies to a normative bar set by the US. The Chinese government long ago proclaimed it will use force against Taiwan if Beijing decides this is necessary. China's 2005 Anti-Succession Law formalized the threat.

Chinese have heard a lot of state-sponsored gloating about the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan in 2021 as well as the claim that America is a“paper tiger” in decline. Against Iran, however, the US military performed superbly in a complex operation halfway around the world from the US homeland.

In contrast, Chinese-supplied military equipment, particularly air defense systems, performed poorly in both Venezuela and Iran. This was an instructive reminder for the Chinese that the US armed forces are the world's most capable.

While PRC officials and state media criticized the US action as lawless and brutal, Chinese also recognized America's operational competence. Chinese foreign affairs analyst Zheng Yongnian concluded the US is“still number one.” Another, Niu Tanqin, said he“cannot but admire” the performance. International relations scholar Shi Yinhong revealed that the tactical success of American forces“strongly impressed the leaders here.”

The demonstration of well-orchestrated lethality has deterrent value.

On the other hand, the Chinese saw a diversion and a depletion of the military resources the Americans might use to oppose Chinese expansionism in the Indo-Pacific region.

US officials insist the Iran war has not worsened pre-existing delays in delivering weapons that Taiwan has bought and paid for. Weapons used against Iran are drawn from US inventories, not from pre-scheduled production for sales to other countries.

Nevertheless, the US has at least temporarily moved military capability from Asia to the Middle East for the Iran campaign. This includes Patriot interceptors, THAAD tubes, the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group, two additional destroyers and two Marine expeditionary units.

US forces also burned through stocks of precious precision weapons. Tomahawk cruise missiles, for example, would be very useful in an Indo-Pacific conflict because they have long range and a robust warhead, and there is now an anti-ship variant. The US military has fired off 850 to 1,000 Tomahawks in the Iran campaign already. These will require two to three years to replace at a cost of about $3.5 million each.

Observers therefore speculate that China has a newly-opened window of opportunity for attacking Taiwan. US magazine depth was already a problem before the Iran campaign. Now China could count on American forces running out of crucial weapons even sooner.

The window-of-opportunity argument is strongest if we assume Xi has already made the decision to forcibly annex Taiwan when the odds appear favorable.

That assumption, however, fails to appreciate the massive risks and downsides to the Chinese leadership of choosing war. In an invasion scenario, China would need to plan for fighting a combined Taiwanese, US and Japanese defensive coalition.

Even as the US runs down its munitions stockpiles, Taiwan is assembling what it claims will be“the world's highest density of anti-ship missiles” by the end of 2026. Japan is now mass-producing its new Type 25 anti-ship cruise missile, which will be able to range the Taiwan Strait, and began deploying it in March.

Victory by China is uncertain, and in any case might prove pyrrhic. The US Navy would likely interdict China's seaborne energy supplies. A Taiwan Strait war would temporarily halt cargo shipping traffic along much of China's east coast. The resulting economic turmoil in China could lead to social and political unrest. And China would face a long-term challenge pacifying and governing an angry Taiwan populace.

Indeed, there is no immediate need for Beijing to resort to using force against Taiwan. China sees US comprehensive power as receding while China is advancing in industrial and technological prowess. The passage of time, therefore, improves China's position relative to the US, and increases the chances that Washington will choose of its own accord to stop competing with China for strategic leadership in eastern Asia.

Xi is still amid a purge of about half of his senior military commanders. A disproportionate number of these leaders were with People's Liberation Army Rocket Force, which would have a key role in an assault on Taiwan.

Taiwan's Kuomintang (Chinese Nationalist Party, or KMT) accepts Beijing's bottom line that Taiwan is part of“China.” Beijing has reason to hope the KMT will regain control of Taiwan's government. KMT Chairwoman Cheng Li-wun's visit to China this month will buoy these hopes. With its coalition partner the Taiwan People's Party, the KMT enjoys a majority in Taiwan's legislature.