War In Iran: Were The Negotiations Held In Geneva Doomed To Fail?
Based in Geneva, I cover the work of the United Nations and other international organisations there. My focus is on humanitarian aid, human rights, and peace diplomacy. I studied business and economics at the University of Lausanne before training as a journalist and joining SWI swissinfo in 2021.
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Where does Switzerland stand in the world? And where is it heading? I focus on current and possible future developments. After completing my studies (history, law and European studies), I worked for a time at the Swiss embassy in Athens. I have journalistic experience at home and abroad, at the local and national levels, as a freelancer and as a staff journalist. Today, it's with an international focus.
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Late on Thursday evening, after long hours of talks described as“intense,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi reported“progress” on social media. Following a second round of indirect negotiations in a matter of days in Geneva between Tehran and Washington over Iran's nuclear programme, the diplomat added that discussions would continue, mentioning a technical meeting“in Vienna in the coming days.” The two sides had also met in Muscat, the capital of Oman, in early February.
The next day, Badr al-Busaidi, Oman's foreign minister, who was acting as mediator, also welcomed the“significant progress” achieved the previous day on the shores of Lake Geneva.
But on Saturday morning, US President Donald Trump surprised the world by announcing the launch of a military operation called“Epic Fury” on Iran. Together, the United States and Israel carried out a series of airstrikes killing senior Iranian regime officials, including the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, Iran's leader since 1989.
Why diplomacy failed“Donald Trump calculated that he would gain more by attacking Iran than by continuing negotiations,” says Cyrus Schayegh, professor at the Geneva Graduate Institute. He says the American president took advantage of the regime's vulnerability to seize the opportunity for a political victory. The regime was weakened by a 12-day war launched by Israel and the US last June and the violent crackdown on protests earlier this year, which, according to NGOs, killed tens of thousands.
As part of the negotiations, Washington hoped to pressure Iran to completely abandon its nuclear programme and its long-range ballistic missiles. Tehran, which has said it has the right to develop nuclear capacity for civilian purposes, aimed to get the US to lift the sanctions that have been crippling its economy since 2018. Iran said it was ready to limit uranium enrichment.
The three rounds of indirect negotiations that took place earlier this year in Geneva and Muscat followed a series of similar talks interrupted last year by US and Israeli bombings of Iranian nuclear sites.
As a result, the two sides entered this new round of negotiations with seemingly irreconcilable demands, analysts say.
“There was mistrust. But if either side thought it was just a ruse from which nothing could be expected, it would not have agreed to commit to talks,” says Schayegh, adding that the US demands were not always clearly defined from the start.
This was particularly true regarding the ballistic program or Iran's support for regional proxies, including Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen.
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