China's Quantum Leap Could Crack US Nuclear Deterrence

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It adds that quantum-enabled advances will improve targeting and long-range precision fires, potentially giving early adopters a decisive edge. The report stresses that while a true quantum breakthrough is unlikely through the next decade, the technology is nearing real-world application, posing strategic challenges for US defense planning.

In terms of nuclear deterrence, Jahara Matisek and other writers mention in an October 2025 article for the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) think tank that quantum sensing threatens to expose nuclear delivery platforms long considered invulnerable.

Matisek and others say that nuclear ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs), the backbone of any nation's second-strike capability, could be tracked through quantum magnetometers detecting minute magnetic anomalies, while gravimeters reveal hidden intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) silos or tunnels. They add that stealth bombers, designed to evade radar, may be detected through quantum optical sensors that exploit atomic-scale precision.

They state that by compressing decision timelines and eroding survivability, these technologies risk destabilizing strategic balances, as adversaries gain the ability to neutralize second-strike forces. They warn that without rapid adaptation, quantum breakthroughs could shrink maneuver space and weaken the credibility of nuclear deterrence.

China's recent military messaging reinforces these fears. Beijing hasn't shied from flaunting its developments in quantum technology, touting a drone-mounted quantum device and a quantum gravimeter for submarine detection and navigation, and a quantum radar detector for use against stealth aircraft.

These claims may show that China is increasingly focused on the air-and-sea-based legs of the US nuclear arsenal, with the US use of land-based ICBMs potentially constrained by the problem of overflight over Russian territory to hit China from existing US missile silos.

Illustrating the potential threat that US SSBNs and strategic bombers pose to China, a March 2025 report by the South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative (SCSPI), a Chinese think tank, states that in 2024 at least 11 nuclear attack submarines (SSNs), two nuclear guided-missile submarines (SSGN) and one SSBN operated in the region, supported by intensified tender activity, signaling a strengthened and sustained underwater presence.

It also adds that US strategic bombers conducted 56 sorties-nearly double 2023 levels-primarily B-52Hs, with additional B-1Bs and rare B-2 appearances. It notes that these bomber deployments emphasized dynamic force employment, including“north–south double-axis” routes via Luzon and the Sulu Sea, and increasingly integrated exercises with allies such as Australia and Japan, underscoring expanded air-based deterrence.

Taken together, these developments suggest a coherent Chinese strategy. Propaganda or not, these claims show that China may be taking a technological leapfrog approach to offset established US advantages.

In this case, China may not be seeking to match the US in terms of nuclear warheads, SSBNs, ICBMs and stealth bombers, but is planning to employ quantum technology as an asymmetric means to offset longstanding US advantages – in this case, a mature nuclear triad.

Dismissing these Chinese signals outright would be risky; strategic surprises rarely announce themselves. Thus, it would be prudent to plan for a contingency where US second-strike capabilities are compromised. In line with that, quantum technology can reinforce US missile defense – keeping abreast of potential adversary advances, thereby maintaining US advantages or strategic stability.