Tuesday, 02 January 2024 12:17 GMT

Colombia's Rally Defies Politics As Peso Firms Again


(MENAFN- The Rio Times) The Colombian market opened higher with the COLCAP holding near 2,080-fresh record territory-while the peso trades around 3,73–3,76 per dollar after another firm overnight session.

The dollar index remains subdued, and with oil steady, global cross-winds favored local assets. What looked like a paradox-equities grinding up and the currency strengthening despite political noise-has a straightforward logic.

First, valuations were deeply discounted after years of underperformance; dividend yields in banks, utilities, and infrastructure became hard to ignore for both locals and foreigners.

Second, a cautious central bank has preserved carry, drawing in fixed-income and FX-linked flows that spill into equities. Third, a softer global dollar lowers imported inflation and reduces funding stress, reinforcing confidence in domestic balance sheets.

Finally, earnings momentum-especially in financials and infrastructure-has quietly improved, and corporate guidance has become more disciplined on costs and capital expenditure. Markets reward prudence.



On the day, leadership was broad. Five top winners by sector: banks (capital ratios strong and credit costs contained), utilities (regulated cash flows and dividend visibility), cement and construction materials (project pipeline stabilizing), retail chains (inventory normalization), and airports/toll-road operators (traffic and tariff read-throughs).

Five notable laggards: oil producers (profit-taking with crude range-bound), coal names (price softness), telecoms (competition pressure), airlines (FX-linked costs even with a stronger peso), and small-cap miners (funding and permitting overhangs).

Turnover is healthy and foreign participation remains steady, with ETF demand tracking the benchmark's climb. In FX, USD/COP continues to lean lower on the charts.


Peso stays firm on credibility and steady inflows
On the four-hour view, momentum is stretched but intact, while on the daily, a clear pattern of lower highs suggests dips toward 3.70–3.72 are plausible unless the dollar index rebounds decisively.

That technical backdrop aligns with fundamentals-stable oil, supportive carry, and no fresh fiscal shocks. Put simply, Colombia 's bid is coming from cash flows and credibility.

Investors are favoring balance-sheet discipline, predictable regulation, and hard-won monetary prudence over headline drama.

Until global dollar conditions reverse or earnings stumble, the path of least resistance remains up for blue chips-and firmer for the peso-albeit with short-term overbought risks.

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The Rio Times

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