Gold's Unstoppable Rise: Could It Hit $7,000 Amid Global Uncertainty?

(MENAFN- Khaleej Times) Gold's incredible momentum from 2025 is accelerating into 2026, and the world's top financial institutions are aligned on one message: the rally is far from over. With forecasts clustering between $4,400 and $5,400, and some calling for $7,000, gold is once again cementing its reputation as the planet's most powerful safe haven asset.

Analysts, leading jewellers and industry stakeholders point to a potent mix of global uncertainty, debt concerns, aggressive central bank accumulation, and the weakening US dollar - all of which are driving investors toward gold as a hedge and diversification tool. However, jewellery fans are still buying but more thoughtfully and differently.

Recommended For You

Analysts surveyed by the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) see prices rising above $7,000 as they expect the metal to average 38% above last year's levels, fuelled by expectations of lower US real rates, continued Fed easing and unwavering central bank diversification away from the dollar.

“Gold remains the headline story after a record-breaking 2025. Analysts see gold, silver, platinum and palladium breaching new highs throughout the year, including not just the $6,000.00 mark for gold but even $7,000.00 - while analysts expect silver to hit $160.00. Platinum could see highs of over $3,000.00 with palladium close on its tail,” the LBMA said in its forecast survey.

HSBC expects gold to hit a staggering $5,050 per ounce in the first half of 2026, though it warns of potential volatility and a correction later in the year. The bank sees prices ending 2026 around $4,450 per ounce.

Goldman Sachs has raised its end 2026 forecast to $5,400 per ounce, citing massive private sector and emerging market central bank buying. The bank notes gold's blistering performance - up more than 11% already in 2026, following a 64% surge in 2025.

J.P. Morgan projects gold averaging $5,055 by fourth quarter of 2026, while Bank of America, Societe Generale, and Citi all assign price targets around $5,000 for the year. On the more cautious end, Deutsche Bank forecasts a range of $3,950–$4,950, and Morgan Stanley sees gold around $4,400–$4,500 by mid 2026.

After soaring more than 60% in 2025 and hitting successive all time highs, gold entered the new year above $4,300 per ounce, defying expectations that its rally would cool. Instead, demand has accelerated, particularly from central banks in emerging markets and investors seeking insulation from currency risk, government debt burdens, and geopolitical instability.

“Gold surged past $5,000 per ounce on January 26 - a clear signal that risk appetite has not returned­ Silver, which had already broken through the $100 level on January 23, continues to push higher,” said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Analyst at Swissquote.

Yellow Metal: A Safe-haven Asset

Shamlal Ahamed, MD-International Operations, Malabar Gold & Diamonds, said gold's performance in 2025 reaffirmed its resilience as a value-appreciating asset amidst global economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions. Looking ahead to 2026 and beyond, he said prices may continue to fluctuate, but gold's importance as a safe-haven asset is expected to remain.

About impact of rising gold prices on its demand, he said:“Yes, we see a shift but not a decline in demand. Customers are becoming more thoughtful and value-conscious, with many of them opting for lighter, multi-purpose designs that are suitable for everyday office wear as well as occasional use.”

“To manage the fluctuating prices, we offer advance purchase options that allow our customers to lock in gold rates by paying 50% or 100% of the amount in advance, providing gold rate protection for 3 and 6 months, respectively. If gold price increases, customers get the booked rate and if it reduces, they get the lower gold rate. We also have the jewellery purchase programme that enable buying through small, and easy installments,” he said.

“Our pricing philosophy remains transparent and fair, but we focus more on design innovation, craftsmanship, and post purchase service. Today, customers are not paying only for the weight of gold in grams, but also for thoughtful design, brand trust, and the emotional value associated with the jewellery,” he added.

Joyalukkas spokesperson said 2025 reinforced gold's role as a resilient and strategic asset. The structural drivers for its strength remain firmly intact.

“Looking ahead to 2026 and beyond, we maintain a confident, long-term outlook. While we monitor factors like interest rate movements and geopolitical sentiment, gold's fundamental appeal as a store of value and a portfolio anchor is expected to endure, supporting a positive trajectory,” the spokesperson said.

About an impact of higher gold price on jewellery demand, he said:“We are observing a nuanced shift in demand rather than a decline. Core celebratory and investment demand remains robust, though some buyers are becoming more strategic.” To navigate higher prices, he said customers are expertly leveraging options such as exchanging old jewellery for new designs.“There is also a growing appreciation for artisanal, design-intensive pieces where craftsmanship carries significant value, as well as lighter, wearable collections that offer elegance without a heavy weight commitment.”

Asked rising gold prices is a temporary disruption or a structural shift that requires a whole new way of planning your business, the spokesperson said:“We view this as a structural shift that validates a long-term, trust-based business model. For decades, our planning has never been based on short-term price speculation. Our foundation is built on enduring customer relationships, timeless design and absolute transparency in purity and pricing. This environment reinforces that strategy - it doesn't change it. It makes our promise of trust and value even more critical.”

Customer Trust

Ahamed said brand perception and customer trust are non-negotiable for us.“We do not compromise on purity, ethics, transparency, or the long-term relationship with our customers. Every interaction is seen as the start of a lifelong relationship. Trust is our strongest asset, and we protect it at all costs.”

In reply to a question about bullish yellow metal and its impact on products and designs, he said lighter designs are a result and not the goal.“Our design teams focus on design innovation, and intricate detailing that deliver visual impact.”

“Everyday, versatile jewellery is seeing stronger traction, especially pieces that transition seamlessly from work to occasion. That said, statement jewellery continues to hold emotional significance for weddings and milestone moments, which remain culturally irreplaceable,” he said.

To a question about weight becoming less relevant than design in the brand collections, he said:“Yes. Design, wearability, and emotional resonance now matter more than sheer weight. Customers increasingly view jewellery as a reflection of personal style rather than just an investment measured in grams.”

The Joyalukkas spokesperson said:“We refuse to compromise on brand perception, which is built on trust. This perception is our covenant with the customer, encompassing purity, fair pricing and exceptional service. While we strategically manage margins and volumes, the trust that defines Joyalukkas is sacred and the cornerstone of our 70-year legacy.” With reference to designs, he said the focus primarily on fulfilling customer demand.“We are focusing on innovation to meet buyer demand. To meet the value conscious customer needs, we are engineering pieces that are aesthetically substantial yet optimised in weight and maximising artistry per gram. It's about innovative techniques and captivating detail that captivate the eye, not just reducing metal. The outcome can be lighter wearability, but the driver is superior artistry.”

He said design has always been paramount, but now its significance is more pronounced than ever.“The conversation starts with the beauty and artistry of the piece. Weight becomes a secondary technical detail, not the primary value proposition. Customers are investing in a piece of art they will cherish, not just a weight of metal.”

Bullish Prices: Customer Behaviour

Ahamed said gold demand still persists and customers are buying differently, not less.“Design usually sparks the conversation, while price influences the final decision. Informed customers appreciate transparency, and choice,” he said.

He said jewellery purchases have become more intentional and meaningful.“Customers are choosing pieces that mark life moments, relationships, and personal milestones, making every purchase emotionally richer and not just transactional,” he said.

“We are seeing strong, balanced demand. Grand, statement pieces remain paramount for weddings and milestones - their emotional value transcends price fluctuations. Simultaneously, there's significant growth in versatile, everyday-luxe pieces that offer repeated wear and timeless style. It's not an either-or scenario - it's about owning jewellery for all facets of life,” according to Joyalukkas spokesperson.

He is of the view that customers are buying more thoughtfully and differently.“The initial draw is invariably the design - the emotional connection. Then follows a savvy, informed discussion about value:“How can I own this beautiful design?”. This leads to exploring exchanges, flexible payment plans or appreciating the design ingenuity that offers grandeur without excessive weight.”

To a question about high gold pricing changed the emotional meaning of jewellery for buyers, he said:“Yes, it has deepened it. Jewellery is now even more clearly recognised as both, an emotional treasure and a prudent asset. The high price underscores its lasting value, making each purchase a more considered and significant gesture. It's not just a gift - it's a legacy piece, reinforcing the profound sentiment behind the exchange.”

Drivers Behind Gold's Stunning Rally

Analysts point to several powerful forces pushing gold higher:

Geopolitical tensions: Rising global conflict risk, policy instability, and currency volatility continue to channel investors into safer assets. Geopolitical pressure was a defining feature of 2025 and remains a central theme as 2026 begins.

Falling interest rates: Expectations of further monetary easing - particularly from the US Federal Reserve - are lowering real yields, making non yielding assets like gold more attractive. Many forecasts assume rates remain low or decline further this year, amplifying gold's appeal.

Central bank buying: Emerging market central banks are aggressively diversifying away from the US dollar, with many accumulating gold at the fastest pace seen in decades. Analysts at Goldman Sachs and HSBC note that this diversification trend is one of the most significant structural drivers of gold demand heading into 2026.

Investor demand: From hedge funds to retail investors, gold is increasingly seen as insurance against equity concentration, currency risk, and global debt concerns. Its ability to outperform during turbulent periods has strengthened its appeal across a wide range of investor classes.

MENAFN08022026000049011007ID1110713061