KABUL (Pajhwok): The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) reports a 20 percent decrease in opium poppy cultivation in Afghanistan in 2025 compared to the previous year.

The sharp contraction, together with market indicators, suggests that opium production and trafficking undergoes major shifts in the region.

The total area under opium poppy cultivation in 2025 was estimated at 10,200 hectares, 20 percent lower than in 2024 (12,800 hectares) and a fraction of the pre-ban levels recorded in 2022, when an estimated 232,000 hectares were cultivated nationwide, according to a new survey by UNODC.

Accordingly, opium production has also declined in 2025, at a rate even greater than that of cultivation, dropping by 32 per cent compared to 2024, to an estimated total of 296 tons.

The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) supreme leader had issued a decree banning poppy cultivation and all other types of narcotics in the country in April 2022 face strict legal and religious consequences.

The decree also prohibits the use, trade, import, export and production of narcotics, including alcohol, heroin, methamphetamine, hashish and related products.

Farmers' income from opium sales fell by 48 percent from 260 million US dollars in 2024 to $134 million in 2025.

After the ban, many farmers switched to growing cereals and other crops. Worsening weather conditions, such as droughts or low rainfall, however, resulted in over 40 per cent of farmland laying barren.

Simultaneously, the return of approximately four million Afghans from neighbouring countries, representing by now around 10 percent of the country's population, has intensified competition for scarce jobs and resources. All these factors, paired with the reductions in humanitarian aid can possibly make opium poppy cultivation more attractive.

“Afghanistan's path to overcoming illicit crop cultivation requires coordinated, long-term investments, including through international partnerships. It is about placing equal emphasis on empowering Afghan farmers through alternative income-generating activities, eradicating illicit crops and countering drug trafficking, while reducing demand through enhanced prevention and treatment.” said Oliver Stolpe, UNODC Regional Representative for Afghanistan, Central Asia, Iran, and Pakistan (ROCA).

The price of dry opium in 2025 fell by 27 percent to $570 compared to $780 in 2024, but it's still five times higher than the pre-ban average.

The reduction in price for opium together with a decline in production suggests a shift in market dynamics and might trigger an increase in attempts to cultivate illicit opium in other countries. Cultivation data, together with prices and seizures signal fundamental changes in drug markets and trafficking in and around Afghanistan.

“Afghanistan's drug problem is not confined to its borders. The dynamics of supply, demand and trafficking involve both Afghan and international actors. Addressing this challenge requires collaboration among key stakeholders. The Counternarcotics Working Group under the Doha Process-serving as a vital engagement platform between the Afghan de facto authorities and the international community-is essential for developing common solutions.” said Georgette Gagnon, Deputy Special-Representative of the Secretary-General for Afghanistan and Officer in Charge of UNAMA.

Production and trafficking of synthetic drugs, especially methamphetamine, continues to increase since the ban. Seizures in and around Afghanistan were about 50 per cent more frequent by the end of 2024 compared with the third quarter of 2023.

As agricultural-based opiate production declines, synthetic drugs appears to have become the new business model for organized crime groups due to the relative ease of production, the greater difficulty in detection and relative resilience to climate changes.

Counter-narcotics strategies must therefore broaden beyond opium to integrate synthetic drugs in monitoring, interdiction and analysis, as well as demand-reduction responses.

The IEA has not yet commented on the UNODC report.

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