(MENAFN) As Brazil gears up to host the 30th UN Climate Change Conference (COP30) in the Amazonian city of Belem, scientists are raising alarms that the world’s largest tropical rainforest is edging dangerously close to an irreversible tipping point.

The Amazon, a vital regulator of the global climate and a sanctuary for biodiversity, is under mounting pressure from deforestation, rising temperatures, and worsening droughts. Experts warn these combined forces could trigger permanent ecological changes.

"This is already happening in the southern Amazon Basin," Jhan-Carlo Espinoza, a Franco-Peruvian researcher at France's Institute of Research for Development (IRD), told media on Tuesday.

He highlighted that areas like Bolivia’s Amazon are facing "increasingly severe and prolonged droughts" and are beginning to resemble Brazil’s Cerrado savanna. Record droughts were recorded in both 2023 and 2024.

In contrast, the northern Amazon is experiencing intensified rainfall patterns, leading to extreme flooding and widespread inundations.

Deforestation Approaches Critical Threshold
While pinpointing the exact moment the Amazon could hit the so-called “point of no return” remains uncertain, scientists agree that key ecological limits are already being tested.

"Between 17 and 20% of the Amazon forest has already been cleared, equivalent to the combined area of France and Germany," Espinoza said, noting that another 17% has been degraded by human activity.

Rising global temperatures—now at their highest levels in modern records—have compounded the crisis, sharply diminishing the forest’s capacity to store carbon and disrupting its crucial water cycle. According to Espinoza, about half of Amazon rainfall is recycled by trees through evapotranspiration.

He warned that ongoing trends threaten both water supplies and food security in nations such as Bolivia and Peru.

The UN COP30 summit, scheduled for Nov. 10-21 in Brazil, aims to convert previous climate pledges into actionable strategies and increase financial support for vulnerable countries. The gathering comes as geopolitical tensions and trade disputes continue to challenge international collaboration on the climate crisis.

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