New Delhi: A fierce battle of narratives, counter-narratives, and intense public scrutiny is defining the assembly election in Bihar's Raghopur constituency - the traditional stronghold of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the political home turf of Lalu Prasad Yadav's family. 

Located in Vaishali district - historically celebrated as the world's first republic with an elected assembly and structured governance dating back to around 600 BC - Raghopur remains a crucible of caste-driven politics. Caste equations continue to dominate the constituency's political landscape, which has produced two chief ministers and a deputy chief minister over the past 35 years.

Jobs, development, and even basic amenities have taken a back seat in Raghopur's high-stakes election - where RJD's Tejashwi Yadav is fighting to retain his family stronghold. The BJP has once again fielded Satish Kumar Yadav, a former RJD member who switched sides to the NDA. Satish joined the JD(U) in 2005 but lost his first election, before pulling off a major upset in 2010 by defeating then–chief minister Rabri Devi. He later joined the BJP in 2015 but hasn't tasted victory since.

Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj Seeks to Break the Binary

Adding a new twist this time is Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj, a three-year-old political outfit aiming to break the bipolar contest. The party has fielded Chanchal Kumar, a Rajput from Basantpur Kakarahta in Bidupur block, hoping to carve a third front in the battle of heavyweights.

Jan Suraaj is banking on its candidate's caste appeal, drawing support from Rajputs, Extremely Backward Castes, and Dalits - communities that together make up a significant share of Raghopur's electorate.

Rajeev Ranjan, a local psephologist told Asianet Newsable English:“In Raghopur, Yadavs are in majority with around 1.15-1.20 lakh votes and this time they are behind Tejashwi Yadav. They are of the view that they are not electing an MLA (Member of Legislative Assembly) but a chief minister, which is a matter of pride for them from both perspectives like caste and region.”

'People Want Change': Jan Suraaj

Chanchal Kumar, the Jan Suraaj candidate told:“People want change. Everyone aspires to do well in their life but they lack opportunities. It's the job of government to provide platforms and opportunities. We are promising them that Jan Suraaj will fulfil the aspirations of the people.”

“We are getting good response from the general public. People say that the Jan Suraaj is the only political party which talks of development, jobs and better education and health facilities.”

On being asked about the society which is deeply divided on caste lines, Chanchal Kumar said:“This is not true. There is a large chunk of people who do not vote on caste or religion lines. They want that the development should be at the centre stage in this election.”

According to him, both the NDA and INDIA alliances remain trapped in comparing their own rule and misrule within Bihar.“We should compare with other states. We are one of the most backward states in the country. We are seen as a labour supplying state.”

In Raghopur, Yadavs form the dominant voter base, followed by Rajputs numbering around 65,000–70,000. Dalits account for roughly 60,000 voters, Muslims 15,000, and Koeris about 12,000, out of a total electorate of 3.5 lakh. The rest comprise various Extremely Backward Castes (EBCs).

Ground Sentiments: Between Legacy, Loyalty, and Change

Going by current caste equations and early trends, Tejashwi Yadav appears to be leading the campaign. In the last election, he polled over 97,000 votes in a triangular contest, winning by a margin of 38,000 votes.

On being asked about the prospect of Jan Suraaj in this election, Shivam Kumar, who keeps a tab on local political affairs, said:“Prashant Kishor has a wonderful vision. Irrespective of caste and religion lines, people like him for his vision, content and the way he communicate to the masses. But it will take to build trust in public for voting.”

Leave caste equation in this assembly,“Youth and labourers who have come from outside are vouching for Prashant Kishor. But that has to be seen how long they would sustain on it. Because the voting pattern in this constituency is RJD Vs Anti-RJD.”

Yugal Rai, a villager under Raghopur block, said that there is an RJD wave.“Look how Tejashwi gave employment to lakhs of youths in his just 17-months tenure as the deputy chief minister. Only he can rise on the aspirations of youths.”

Kundan Singh of Navanagar, a BJP supporter, described Satish Kumar Yadav as an educated, humble, and approachable leader who“always stands by his people in times of need.” Calling him a“jamin ka beta” (son of the soil), Singh praised his grassroots connect and accessibility.

He also credited the newly constructed six-lane bridge that now links the riverine constituency by road - a major infrastructure boost for the region where people once relied on boats to commute.

Historically a pocket borough of the RJD, Raghopur constituency comprises the Raghopur and Bidupur community development blocks. It falls under the Hajipur Lok Sabha constituency, which is currently represented by Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) chief and Union minister Chirag Paswan.

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