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It probably does not help that Takaichi is dependent on the support of Taro Aso, who referred to Komeito as a“cancer” in the ruling coalition in 2023, and, more generally, that the LDP right has long viewed the party as an obstacle to achieving its ambitions. The upshot is that Takaichi had little room to maneuver.

What does this mean for Takaichi becoming prime minister?

The Diet was supposed to convene for an extraordinary session this month to receive Ishiba's resignation and choose a new prime minister. That session, originally expected for October 15 was pushed back as the LDP and Komeito struggle to conclude a coalition agreement.

CDP leader Yoshihiko Noda speaks to the news media on Friday, 10 October. Photo: CDP

The vote itself is now uncertain.

Ishiba was able to be reaffirmed as prime minister last year despite heading a minority government since there was no plausible combination of opposition parties that could top the ruling coalition's 220 votes for Ishiba, and most of the opposition parties abstained in the runoff between Ishiba and Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) leader Noda Yoshihiko.

However, the LDP alone has only 196 seats and there are several plausible – if complicated – combinations that could top this figure. The Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), Democratic Party for the People (DPFP), and Ishin no Kai have 210 seats among them; if Komeito were to join they would have 234, an absolute majority. The CDP, DPFP, and Komeito have 199 seats between them.

The LDP needs to convince some opposition lawmakers either to back Takaichi or at least to abstain to ensure that whoever else makes the runoff cannot top Takaichi.

The LDP leadership candidates talked a lot about expanding the coalition. Why can't the LDP just bring in a new coalition partner?

While this makes sense on paper, it is much more complicated in practice. For starters, no single opposition party has enough seats on its own to deliver a majority to the government. Any opposition party would be signing up for participation in a minority government that would still need to negotiate with the opposition to realize policies.

Meanwhile, neither the DPFP nor Ishin no Kai has been eager to join the LDP, for reasons not unlike Komeito's reasons for leaving. Neither wants to join the LDP and pay the reputational cost of propping up LDP rule. They are open to negotiations to move policies through the Diet but they do not want to be constrained by partnership with an LDP in crisis.

Additionally, the DPFP has been hearing from organization labor federation RENGO, its principal backer, that it is firmly opposed to the DPFP's supporting the LDP-led government.

Can the opposition parties really cooperate to elect an alternative?

While we have seen a multi-party coalition drive the LDP into opposition before, the 1993-1994 coalition is a cautionary tale of the difficulty of uniting a disparate group of opposition parties with at best loose agreement on a policy agenda.

Even before Friday's announcement, the CDP was talking with opposition parties to drum up support not for CDP leader Noda but for Tamaki . Noda on Friday said the opposition has a“once-in-a-decade” chance to drive the LDP from power.

The DPFP was skeptical about this effort, citing the significant policy differences with the CDP, but Tamaki responded to news of the ruling coalition's breakdown by announcing his interest in becoming prime minister.

Ishin no Kai's leaders, meanwhile, have suggested that if the DPFP is interested, they might be open to discussing as well.

And Komeito's position is unknown. The party has said that it will not vote for Takaichi, but whether it would participate in an effort to elect an alternative is unclear.

There is reason to be skeptical about the ability of the opposition parties to overcome their differences, but they do have a window of opportunity to negotiate a short-term coalition that would, say, pass political reform legislation and a supplemental budget and then call a snap election.

Could that really happen?

It seems far-fetched but the reality is that Japan's political situation is a highly fluid one in which the principal actors may be willing to make alliances and deals that would have been unthinkable not too long ago.

At the very least, the LDP and Takaichi look significantly damaged. Whatever hopes she had of boosting the LDP's support and signaling a new era for the LDP have likely been dashed.

What if a general election were held today?

It is hard to see the LDP regaining a majority; it would probably lose seats.

The Nikkei Shimbun ran a simulation that found that if the LDP and Komeito had split before last year's general election, the LDP would have won 20% fewer seats and the CDP would be the largest party in the House of Representatives.

As such, if there is a general election in the near term, the LDP will have to contest it without Komeito's backing. Saito said that the party will neither endorse LDP candidates nor seek LDP endorsements for its candidates, though there may be some individual candidates it could support.

LDP candidates would then have to contest an election without Komeito support while facing pressure on the right – from the DPFP and Sanseitō – and from the center, since a Noda-led CDP may be able to pick up votes from, say, moderate LDP voters who opposed Takaichi.