Tuesday, 02 January 2024 12:17 GMT

Yuan Lies In Wait As Trump Pushes Buck To The Brink


(MENAFN- Asia Times) TOKYO - Depending on your vantage point, the last year has been the best or the worst of times for the US dollar.

Those on the former side of this Dickensian divide will point to new Bank for International Settlements data as showing the dollar is still on one side of 89% of currency transactions, meaning US hegemony is unstoppable. Those taking the latter side see the yuan's share rising to 8.5% as a reason for Washington to watch its back.

The reality is complicated, given how global foreign exchange traders seem to be giving the dollar a pass on deteriorating US fundamentals.

From a national debt topping US$37 trillion to US President Donald Trump undermining the Federal Reserve's independence to tariffs upending the global financial system, the dollar's continued popularity is quite a curiosity. That gold's powerful rally to all-time highs is happening simultaneously, adds to“Teflon dollar” lore.

At the same time, the yuan is now on a path to leapfrog over the pound to become the fourth-most-traded currency. Global trading of the Chinese yuan has increased to $817 billion a day, according to the BIS data. That extends a decade-long trend.

Yet given the scale of China's $18 trillion economy, you can understand why US Treasury Scott Bessent's team might take the yuan's still paltry share of global transactions - just half of the Japanese yen - for granted.

“The international use of the yuan still does not match China's size in the global economy and trade,” said analyst Miao Yanliang at China International Capital Corporation.

The dollar, it turns out, is a very hard habit to break for central banks, investment funds and oil-producing and commodity-exporting nations. Yet some of the explanation lies in China's slower-than-hoped progress toward both implementing financial reforms and addressing cracks in its foundations.

The most obvious demerit is Beijing's failure to make the yuan fully convertible. In 2016, the People's Bank of China achieved its goal of having the yuan included in the International Monetary Fund's“special drawing rights” framework, making it the fifth currency to do so.

At the time, PBOC officials recognized that outside pressure from the IMF would prompt the Communist Party to accelerate financial reforms.

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