(MENAFN- The Rio Times) The Colombian peso began Friday near 3,883 per dollar, little changed around the official reference rate of 3,897.64.

A firm U.S. Dollar Index near 97.9 kept a lid on currency gains, while Colombia's still-high real interest rate-policy at 9.25% with inflation near 5%-helped anchor the peso ahead of September CPI due October 7.

Here's the story, simply: the global dollar tone is steady, so the peso isn't getting an external boost. At home, carry remains attractive, which prevents outsized weakness. Those two forces offset, leaving USD/COP stuck in a 3,88k–3,90k band.

The story behind the story is political. After the Gaza flotilla episode, President Gustavo Petro moved to fully rupture ties with Israel and start unwinding the bilateral FTA-steps that also test Bogotá's relationship with Washington.

Markets see limited immediate trade impact, but they do add a layer of risk premium investors will watch if headlines escalate. Stocks reflected the same“pause” mood.



The MSCI Colcap slipped 0.75% to 1,848.9 on Thursday, easing after a strong run that still leaves the index comfortably above its 200-day average. Energy softness abroad didn't help: Ecopetrol's New York shares fell about 1.5%.

Winners and losers tell the micro-story. Organizacion Terpel led gainers (+1.6%), followed by Mineros (+1.3%) and Grupo Bolívar (+0.6%), hinting at interest in defensives and precious-metals leverage.

On the downside, Canacol Energy (-4.4%) lagged, with Celsia (-1.6%) and Grupo Argos (-1.4%) also lower, reflecting caution in energy and utilities.



Technicals reinforce the stalemate. On the daily chart, USD/COP sits below a declining 200-day average, momentum negative but stabilizing-still a mild downtrend for the dollar versus the peso. The four-hour view is range-bound, with neutral RSI and fading MACD.

Translation: resistance around 3,900–3,910, support at 3,870 then 3,840–3,830. A daily close back above the 200-day would point to renewed dollar strength; a clean break below 3,830 would reopen 3,78k–3,80k.

Bottom line: Colombia's market is balancing politics against carry. Unless U.S. risk sentiment or next week's CPI jars the view, expect a contained session-steady peso, selective stock rotation, and eyes on the headlines.

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