Dubai's property market has stormed into new territory in 2025, shattering previous benchmarks as investor flows and buyer confidence converge.

The third quarter emerged as a standout, with transaction volumes and values hitting record highs and propelling total sales for the first nine months close to Dh500 billion - a feat never before achieved.

According to a market update by fäm Properties, Q3 recorded 59,228 property deals worth Dh170.7 billion, representing year-on-year gains of 17.2 per cent in transaction volume and 19.9 per cent in value.

Over the first nine months, the tally soared to Dh498.8 billion from 158,200 deals, up 32.3 per cent in value and 20.5 per cent in volume compared to the same period in 2024. DXBinteract data supports the surge.

The breakdown of Q3's performance underscores strength across sectors. Apartment deals dominated with 49,370 transactions at Dh94.3 billion-volume up 25.9 per cent. Commercial property sales leapt 41.9 per cent in volume to 1,565 deals, valued at Dh4.2 billion. Plot sales reached 1,214 deals (a 25.7 per cent rise), generating Dh36.1 billion. Villas presented a more complex story: 7,078 units sold for Dh43.1 billion, a drop of 23.3 per cent in volume, though price performance remained solid. The median sale price per square foot in Q3 hit Dh1,685, up 11.4 per cent year on year, continuing a steady climb from Dh858 in 2020.

Over the past five years, Q3 sales have soared-from Dh17.9 billion in 2020 (8,500 deals) to Dh42.5 billion in 2021 (16,000 deals), Dh69.1 billion in 2022 (25,400 deals), Dh109.4 billion in 2023 (36,700 deals), Dh142.3 billion in 2024 (50,500 deals)-culminating in the Dh170.7 billion benchmark achieved in 2025.

Luxury property deals captured attention. The priciest villa in Q3 was sold in Jumeirah Second for Dh250 million, while the top apartment fetched Dh174 million at Aman Residences Dubai – Tower 1. Among all sales, properties priced above Dh5 million accounted for 10 per cent (5,991 deals). Another 38 per cent (22,785) fell in the Dh1–2 million range, 25 per cent (15,065) under Dh1 million, 15 per cent (9,128) between Dh2–3 million, and 11 per cent (6,258) between Dh3–5 million.

Developer (first-sale) activity outpaced resale by a wide margin: 73 per cent of transactions by volume and 66 per cent by value were off-plan or primary market sales.

Among projects topping the charts in Q3: in the first-sale apartment segment, Binghatti Skyrise led with 1,393 units sold (Dh2.2 billion), followed by Binghatti Hillviews (724 units, Dh825.5 million), Binghatti Aquarise (634 units, Dh1.1 billion), Sobha Solis (624 units, Dh765.2 million), and Sobha Orbis (477 units, Dh652.5 million). On the villa front, Wadi Al Safa 3 ranked first (849 units, Dh5.9 billion, median Dh6.3 million), followed by Al Yelayiss 1 (755 units, Dh2.3 billion, median Dh2.7 million), Dubai Investors Park 2 (635 units, Dh3.5 billion, median Dh6.8 million), Madinat Al Mataar (392 units, Dh1.6 billion, median Dh3.8 million), and Madinat Hind 4 (376 units, Dh705.4 million, median Dh2 million). Resale leaders included Azizi Riviera, Elite Sports Residence, DIFC Heights Tower, Mediterranean Cluster, Sobha Hartland – The Crest (apartments) and Wadi Al Safa 5, Al Hebiah Fifth, Madinat Al Mataar, Wadi Al Safa 7, Jabal Ali First (villas).

Broader indicators paint a robust market backdrop. In H1 2025, Dubai logged 98,603 property sales worth Dh326.7 billion, a 40 per cent year-on-year leap, with Q2 (53,118 deals worth Dh184 billion) emerging as the strongest quarter ever recorded. Meanwhile, average prices rose steadily: in Q2, residential property rates reached Dh1,582 per square foot-up 6 per cent from H2 2024 and 3 per cent quarter on quarter.

Market watchers note that off-plan development remains a key engine: early 2025 data show off-plan sales making up 69 per cent of total value in some periods, with transaction numbers rising about 33 per cent year on year. But while growth is emphatic, analysts caution that this momentum may soften.

Fitch Ratings projects potential price correction of up to 15 per cent in the second half of 2025 and into 2026, driven by a swelling supply pipeline (210,000 units due over the next two years) and rising interest rate pressures. Cushman & Wakefield projects residential handover volumes in 2025 could surge more than 40 per cent year on year.

“The Q3 figures again underline the lasting strength of the market and Dubai's growing appeal to local, regional, and global investors as one of the world's prime real estate investment hubs,” said Firas Al Msaddi, CEO of fäm Properties. But the next few months will be telling: whether demand sustains, or whether supply and macro headwinds rein in what has been an extraordinary rally.

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