Rates Spark: Whimsical Data Clouds The Fed's Path

US rates are in the driving seat as investors try to gauge the Fed's outlook. A set of positive data surprises – an upwardly revised final second-quarter GDP reading as well as benign jobless claims figures – nudged rates higher from the front end. The 2y Treasury rose above 3.65%, the highest since late August, while the 10y US Treasury yield is approaching 4.2% again. With the market already anticipating a benign PCE inflation reading, confirmation should not alter the outlook. The risk is rather for rates to move another notch higher should price dynamics remain hotter.

Looking ahead to next week, the US will likely continue to determine market direction with the official jobs report for September to be released. At this early stage, not many market observers have submitted their estimates, but what we see so far is anywhere from 20k to 80k, thus highlighting the 'lottery' these releases have become.

EUR rates have been dragged higher alongside US rates, led by the belly of the curve. A less aggressive Fed at least lessens the probability of the European Central Bank reacting to FX effects. While it fits our structurally still bearish view, domestically the survey data over the past week pointed in the other direction, if anything. What EUR rates will be looking for in next week's data is whether the flash CPI leaves the ECB with room to act.

From the eurozone, we will see CPI expectations from the ECB survey, but given the stable inflation dynamics of late, we don't foresee any surprises. More interesting will be US data, whereby the core PCE deflator for August is expected to come in at 0.2% month-on-month, a notch lower than July's 0.3%. Other US releases include personal income and spending data and the final University of Michigan sentiment indices.

Italy has 5Y and 10Y BTPs scheduled for auctioning, together with a 10Y green BTP and 9Y CCTeu. The total amount is €8.75bn.

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