Brazil's Financial Morning Call For September 22, 2025

(MENAFN- The Rio Times) Brazil's financial markets open today under a cloud of diplomatic tensions. The country faces rogue-state treatment at the United Nations with its smallest delegation in decades, comprising just six ministers and two governors accompanying President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva to New York.

This was prompted by U.S. visa restrictions on Health Minister Alexandre Padilha, who is confined to a five-block radius around his hotel and UN headquarters.

The restrictions are harsher than the limits imposed on Cuban, Russian, or Syrian diplomats and even extend to his family.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio has announced a new sanctions package next week to curb“judicial overreach” threatening U.S. sovereignty and digital free speech.

Amid this, Nubank's announcement at Meridian 2025 allows customers to pay with dollar-pegged stablecoins via credit cards. The move builds on its 2022 Bitcoin investment, which represented 1% of net assets, and on its March 2025 additions of Cardano, Cosmos, Near Protocol, and Algorand.

The development signals blockchain's fusion with banking to address volatile currencies and high remittance costs in Latin America. Stablecoins already dominate 90% of Brazil's crypto volume, according to the Central Bank.

The shift could lower fees, speed up payments, and expand credit access as regulators simultaneously consider launching a digital real and tokenized deposits.

Meanwhile, Vale struck a $1 billion cash deal on September 18, selling 70% of its Aliança Energia unit to Global Infrastructure Partners while retaining a 30% stake.

The agreement secures fixed U.S. dollar-denominated renewable power from 2,189 MW of assets, including the 381 MW Sol do Cerrado solar farm, the 92 MW Risoleta Neves hydro plant, six additional hydro plants, and three wind farms.

The transaction advances Vale's goal of reaching 100% renewable energy use and helps reduce net debt toward the $15–16 billion range. It also earned the company an S&P upgrade to BBB (stable).

Adding to the momentum, BTG Pactual raised its target price for Vale's ADRs to $11, citing robust iron ore prices near $100 per tonne.

Despite these headwinds, the Ibovespa's monthly 8.3% rise to 145,865 points reflects revived risk appetite and domestic resilience.

Today's economic agenda includes the BCB Focus Market Readout at 7:25 AM EST (8:25 AM BRT) and the Chicago Fed National Activity Index at 8:30 AM EST (9:30 AM BRT).

These releases will provide vital clues on monetary policy, inflation, and growth expectations. The outcomes are expected to influence the real's stability at R$5.32 and shape investor sentiment.

This comes against a backdrop of U.S. sanctions risks, UN diplomatic frictions, and fintech and energy innovations that are boosting financial inclusion and clean power security.

Economic Agenda

Today's economic agenda is packed with domestic and global indicators. These will shape Brazil's trade-heavy economy, currency outlook, and investor confidence. The backdrop includes U.S. sanctions and tariffs on key imports, as well as UN rogue-state-style diplomatic restrictions.

At the same time, positive signals are emerging from Nubank's stablecoin integration and Vale's $1 billion energy deal, which strengthens renewable power and supports debt reduction. Liquidity may be unaffected by major holidays, though global caution persists.

Brazil

• 7:25 AM EST / 8:25 AM BRT – BCB Focus Market Readout: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous TBD. This aggregates market forecasts for inflation, GDP, and Selic rate, critical for gauging monetary policy expectations amid a 15% Selic rate, U.S. sanctions and 50% tariffs on imports, and UN delegation restrictions impacting diplomatic and trade ties. It shapes currency and investor sentiment in a high-rate, geopolitically tense environment.

Key Events Asia

• 4:30 AM EST / 5:30 AM BRT – HKD CPI (MoM) (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 0.60%. Tracks short-term inflation, relevant for Asian demand on Brazilian exports.
• 4:30 AM EST / 5:30 AM BRT – HKD CPI (YoY) (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 1.00%. Gauges annual price trends, indirectly signaling commodity demand.
• 2:00 AM EST / 3:00 AM BRT – CHF M3 Money Supply (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 1,193.4B. Signals liquidity, impacting global flows to Brazil.

Europe

• 8:45 AM EST / 9:45 AM BRT – EUR German Buba Mauderer Speaks: Provides monetary policy signals, influencing risk sentiment for Brazilian assets.
• 9:00 AM EST / 10:00 AM BRT – EUR French 12-Month BTF Auction: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 2.046%. Signals short-term yields, impacting Eurozone liquidity and Brazilian trade.
• 9:00 AM EST / 10:00 AM BRT – EUR French 3-Month BTF Auction: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 2.007%. Short-term rates affect flows to Brazil.
• 9:00 AM EST / 10:00 AM BRT – EUR French 6-Month BTF Auction: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 2.027%. Mid-term yields influence Brazilian export markets.
• 9:45 AM EST / 10:45 AM BRT – EUR ECB's Lane Speaks: Offers policy insights, affecting Eurozone sentiment and Brazilian goods demand.
• 10:00 AM EST / 11:00 AM BRT – EUR Consumer Confidence (Sep): Actual TBD, Consensus -15.0, Previous -15.5. Tracks sentiment, relevant for Brazilian export pricing under U.S. tariff risks.
• 12:00 PM EST / 1:00 PM BRT – EUR German Buba President Nagel Speaks: Economic remarks influence Brazilian commodity demand.
• 1:30 PM EST / 2:30 PM BRT – EUR German Buba Balz Speaks: Policy signals impact risk appetite for Brazilian assets.

North America

• 8:30 AM EST / 9:30 AM BRT – USD Chicago Fed National Activity (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous -0.19. Signals U.S. economic health, critical amid potential sanctions expansions and tariff exemptions on select Brazilian goods.
• 8:30 AM EST / 9:30 AM BRT – CAD IPPI (MoM) (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus 0.2%, Previous 0.7%. Tracks producer prices, impacting demand for Brazilian industrial exports.
• 8:30 AM EST / 9:30 AM BRT – CAD IPPI (YoY) (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 2.6%. Annual trends affect Brazilian goods trade.
• 8:30 AM EST / 9:30 AM BRT – CAD RMPI (YoY) (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 0.8%. Raw material prices influence commodity margins.
• 8:30 AM EST / 9:30 AM BRT – CAD RMPI (MoM) (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus 1.2%, Previous 0.3%. Short-term signals impact Brazilian exports.
• 9:45 AM EST / 10:45 AM BRT – USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks: Policy remarks influence dollar strength and Brazilian real.
• 11:30 AM EST / 12:30 PM BRT – USD 3-Month Bill Auction: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 3.905%. Short-term yields affect currency flows.
• 11:30 AM EST / 12:30 PM BRT – USD 6-Month Bill Auction: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 3.715%. Yields guide capital to emerging markets like Brazil.
• 12:00 PM EST / 1:00 PM BRT – USD FOMC Member Barkin Speaks: Fed insights impact risk sentiment.
• 1:15 PM EST / 2:15 PM BRT – CAD BoC Senior Deputy Governor Rogers Speaks: Canadian policy affects North American trade with Brazil.

Oceania and Other

• 2:00 PM EST / 3:00 PM BRT – GBP BoE Gov Bailey Speaks: UK policy signals influence global liquidity for Brazilian commodities.
• 3:45 PM EST / 4:45 PM BRT – CAD BoC Deputy Gov Kozicki Speaks: Monetary trends impact demand.
• 5:00 PM EST / 6:00 PM BRT – KRW PPI (YoY) (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 0.5%. Tracks producer inflation, affecting Asian commodity demand.
• 5:00 PM EST / 6:00 PM BRT – KRW PPI (MoM) (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 0.4%. Short-term trends influence Brazilian exports.
• 7:00 PM EST / 8:00 PM BRT – AUD Manufacturing & Services PMI (MoM) (Sep): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 55.50%. Gauges activity, relevant for global trade.
• 7:00 PM EST / 8:00 PM BRT – AUD Manufacturing PMI (Sep): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 53.0. Signals industrial health impacting commodities.
• 7:00 PM EST / 8:00 PM BRT – AUD Services PMI (Sep): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 55.8. Affects broader demand for Brazilian goods.
• 9:45 AM EST / 10:45 AM BRT – GBP BoE MPC Member Pill Speaks: UK rate signals influence emerging market flows.

These global events matter as they influence demand for Brazil's commodity exports (iron ore, agriculture, oil) and the real's stability amid U.S. sanctions risks, UN diplomatic concerns, and resilient domestic fintech and energy sector advancements. Brazil's Markets Yesterday Brazilian traders extended gains on Friday, September 19, 2025, lifting the Ibovespa index up 0.25% to 145,865 points, with a monthly advance of 8.3% on improved domestic outlook and revived risk appetite, though trading volumes held steady amid mixed global cues. The index ranged in line with cautious sentiment from U.S. sanctions and UN tensions, but consumer and healthcare sectors provided uplift, with Natura & Co surging 16.5% on better-than-expected quarterly results and a new cost-cutting plan, Motiva Infraestrutura rising 2.3% to a five-year high on infrastructure optimism, and Hypera advancing 2.1% on higher margins. On the downside, Usiminas slid 5.4% as steel demand projections dimmed, Azzas fell 3.4%, and Grupo Vamos lost 3.0% on profit-taking and sector headwinds. Global markets retreated, with Wall Street pulling back after the Federal Reserve's hawkish tone on rates, Asian stocks lower, and Europe's indices negative, while a firmer U.S. dollar capped emerging-market gains-yet Brazil outperformed peers like Argentina's steeply dropping Merval and Mexico's slipping IPC. Read more U.S. Markets Yesterday U.S. stocks capped a strong week with all three major indexes closing at record highs, lifted by the Fed's rate cut and guidance for further easing. Tech led sector gains; energy lagged. Turnover surged on triple-witching options expiry. Key market rates were steady, volatility low, and the dollar and oil firmed. S&P index changes take effect Monday, which may impact opening flows. Read more Commodities Brazilian Real

The Brazilian real strengthened to USD/BRL 5.32 on September 19, 2025, defying global weakness. Despite this move, the currency still shows a weekly drop of 0.62% and a year-to-date decline of more than 13%.

Support came from the Central Bank's $2 billion dollar line auctions with repurchase commitments and the issuance of 40,000 swap contracts to cover maturing hedges.

The real also benefited from Brazil's 15% Selic rate, which stands in sharp contrast to the U.S. Federal Reserve's cut to 4–4.25%. The backdrop of global dollar softening further reinforced the currency's resilience.

Technical indicators show a medium-term downtrend with low volatility and oversold conditions (RSI below 40), but stabilization signals via neutral MACD and rising volumes, though narrowing interest spreads and current account risks loom for 2026. Today's BCB Focus at 7:25 AM EST (8:25 AM BRT) and Chicago Fed at 8:30 AM EST (9:30 AM BRT) will guide currency expectations amid U.S. sanctions. Read more Oil Prices Oil prices rose despite global surplus, with Brent at $67.12 and WTI at $62.82 on September 19, supported by Ukraine's drone attacks on Russian refineries (removing 1.1 million barrels/day since early 2024, 17% of capacity) and Europe's 19th sanctions package banning Russian gas by January 2027 and targeting 118 tankers, offsetting OPEC+'s extra 547,000 barrels/day and Iraq's 3.4 million exports. This aids Petrobras' revenues amid tariff exemptions on energy products, though UN tensions add risks. Today's CAD IPPI at 8:30 AM EST (9:30 AM BRT) will signal North American demand trends. Read more Gold Prices Gold retreated to $3,687/oz on September 19 after peaking at $3,708 last week, up 40.8% year-to-date, driven by the Fed's 0.25% cut reducing holding costs, central bank buys (166.5 tonnes in Q2, $11 billion; China +1.9 tonnes in August), geopolitical tensions, and a fiat shift, with $5.5 billion in ETF inflows in August holding 3,692 tonnes. Fed caution tempered gains; resistance at $3,700–$3,725, support at $3,620. This supports Brazil's mining exports despite sanctions. Today's French BTF auctions at 9:00 AM EST (10:00 AM BRT) will guide liquidity. Read more Silver Prices Silver rallied to $43.67/oz, up 1.36% daily, crossing key moving averages, fueled by Fed rate-cut expectations, industrial demand in solar/EVs outpacing mine output for seven years, low inventories, and ETF inflows (95 million oz since January, +1.2 million overnight), plus India's festival demand and stable dollar liquidity (index 100.13). This bolsters Brazil's mining sector. Today's EUR Consumer Confidence at 10:00 AM EST (11:00 AM BRT) will clarify industrial trends. Read more Copper Prices Copper climbed to $9,996.50/tonne (LME), $4.572/lb (COMEX), and 80,080 yuan/tonne (SHFE) on September 22, above 50-day average ($9,985), amid supply shocks like Indonesia's Grasberg mine closure (2.5% global output), 5% Chinese smelter cuts from environmental levies/low scrap, and aging Chilean/Peruvian mines, versus EV/renewables demand projecting a 400,000-tonne deficit. $12–18 million inflows to copper funds signal confidence; potential test of $10,150. This supports Vale's exports. Today's AUD Manufacturing PMI at 7:00 PM EST (8:00 PM BRT) will provide demand clarity. Read more Cryptocurrencies Bitcoin dipped 2.6% to $112,826 on September 19, holding strength in a $630 million market liquidation (99% leveraged long positions, peaking $310 million hourly in Asia), as 61% of majors fell and altcoins halved, triggered by Fed cut uncertainty, greed/timing errors, and stop-loss cascades despite elevated Global Liquidity Index. This reflects caution in Brazil's fintech sector, highlighted by Nubank's stablecoin push. Today's USD FOMC Williams at 9:45 AM EST (10:45 AM BRT) will influence digital trends. Read more Iron Ore Prices Iron ore steadied at $105.65/tonne on September 19, ranging $104.23–$106.75 for 62% fines to China, held by steady steel demand despite August's 2.9% output drop, with mills restocking for winter construction (imports >112 million tonnes, stocks 132.6 million), below last year's levels, and $642 million base-metals inflows (NDQ 100.12). Australian/Guinean supply rises loom. This aids Vale amid its energy deal. Today's KRW PPI at 5:00 PM EST (6:00 PM BRT) will hint at Asian demand. Read more Companies and Market Industry Outlook Brazil's economy faces challenges from a 15% Selic rate, U.S. 50% tariffs on key imports (exempting aircraft, energy, pulp, fertilizers), Magnitsky sanctions on Justice Moraes, and UN rogue-state treatment with visa restrictions and a minimal delegation signaling toxic diplomacy, as Rubio warns of judicial overreach threatening U.S. interests. However, the Ibovespa 's 145,865 close and real at 5.32 reflect optimism from Central Bank interventions and Fed cuts, with Nubank's stablecoin-credit card integration (90% crypto volume in Brazil) promising lower fees/cross-border efficiency, and Vale's $1 billion Aliança Energia sale (70% to Global Infrastructure Partners, fixed USD renewables from 2,189 MW assets) cutting debt, earning BBB upgrade, and supporting 100% green energy. The Ibovespa's 8.3% monthly gain underscores corporate resilience like Natura's 16.5% jump. Today's BCB Focus at 7:25 AM EST (8:25 AM BRT), Chicago Fed at 8:30 AM EST (9:30 AM BRT), and French BTF auctions at 9:00 AM EST (10:00 AM BRT) will shape demand for oil, mining, and fintech. Key Developments U.S. Sanctions and Tariffs: 50% duties on Brazilian imports post-Bolsonaro's 27-year coup sentence, with Magnitsky sanctions on Moraes and new package next week, escalating tensions as U.S. warns banks. Read more UN Diplomatic Crisis: Smallest delegation in decades due to visa curbs on Padilha (five-block limit), Haddad's absence, and rogue-state measures, chilling international ties. Read more Fintech Innovation: Nubank enables stablecoin credit card payments, leveraging 90% market dominance to cut remittance costs and boost inclusion amid regulatory digital real push. Read more Energy Sector Deal: Vale's $1 billion sale of 70% Aliança Energia secures USD-fixed clean power (solar, hydro, wind), reduces debt, and lifts ADR target to $11. Read more Commodity Pressures: Iron ore ($105.65) steady on China restocking, oil ($67.12) up on Ukraine strikes, gold ($3,687) post-peak on Fed cuts, silver ($43.67) on industrial rally, copper ($9,996.50) near $10k on deficits. Read more Stock Market Dynamics: Ibovespa at 145,865 (+0.25%) with Natura (+16.5%) leading consumer/healthcare gains, offsetting Usiminas (-5.4%) steel woes, amid global retreats. Read more Explanation of EST Eastern Standard Time (EST) is the time zone used in the eastern United States, including New York, Washington, D.C., and Miami, set at UTC-5, five hours behind Coordinated Universal Time (UTC). EST is applied here for consistency, aligning with U.S. financial market schedules, influencing global trading.

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