H1-B Visa Shock: SEBI Analysts See Short-Term Pain, Long-Term Gain For Indian IT

Indian IT stocks fell sharply on Monday, with the sectoral index down 2.6% after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a $100,000 fee on new H-1B visa applications. 

The IT index was the biggest sectoral loser of the day, dragging the benchmark Nifty 50 lower by 0.1%.

All 10 stocks on the index traded in the red, led by Persistent Systems, which slid 3.4%, Mphasis down 3.4%, LTIMindtree off 3.3%, TCS lower by 2.2%, and Tech Mahindra, alongside Infosys, which slipped 0.6%.

Visa Shock And Industry Impact

SEBI-registered analyst Mayank Singh Chandel said Trump has shaken the H-1B visa program with a proposed $100,000 fee for each visa, hitting Indian IT companies the hardest as they are the largest users. 

“This could raise costs sharply and also reduce opportunities for Indian tech workers,” he said, noting that Infosys, TCS, and Wipro may feel the pressure.

Chandel added that while the fee may seem like a significant blow today, in the long run, it could encourage Indian IT firms to rely less on visas and strengthen their teams back home.

Technical Outlook

On the market side, Chandel pointed out that the IT index has been under pressure since December 2024. It briefly recovered above its 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) in June before slipping again; however, it is now showing short-term strength as it trades above the 21-day and 50-day EMAs. 

He highlighted Coforge, LTIMindtree, and Mphasis as holding above key averages, while Infosys and TCS remain below their 200-day EMAs but are near important support zones.

GCC Expansion And Outsourcing Push

SEBI-registered platform Equity Insights Elite said the new U.S. Executive Order marks a drastic shift in immigration policy. 

They noted that instead of paying $100,000 per visa, U.S. tech giants may accelerate building Global Capability Centers in India, which already hosts more than 1,600 GCCs with 1.7 million employees. 

The order could also give a fresh push to outsourcing for cost-sensitive projects, benefiting Indian IT firms.

Talent Shifts

According to Equity Insights Elite, the fee may also trigger a“brain gain” for India as skilled professionals return, while U.S. startups without deep pockets could struggle. They added that students may increasingly look to Canada, the UK, or Australia instead of the U.S. 

“The $100,000 H-1B fee may look like a roadblock, but it could be a turning point for India's IT sector,” they said, framing it as short-term pain but a potential long-term opportunity.

What Is The Retail Mood?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for NIFTYIT was 'bullish' amid 'normal' message volume.

The Nifty IT index has risen 2.2% so far in 2025.

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