The Arab World's“Borrowed” Security-And The Urgent Need To Shift From Dependency To Self-Reliance

Recent reports highlight two striking developments in the Middle East's shifting security landscape. On one side, Saudi Arabia has signed what is described as a strategic defense pact with Pakistan-strategic, because according to insiders and analysts close to decision-making circles in both countries, the agreement effectively extends Pakistan's nuclear umbrella over the Kingdom. Some even claim that Pakistani forces have already begun deploying near Mecca and Riyadh. These moves come at the same time that Saudi–Iranian talks are progressing on multiple levels, covering not only bilateral relations but also broader regional and international issues. If these steps prove genuine and strategic rather than merely tactical bargaining chips, they could reshape alliances and balances of power across the region.

In the opposite direction, the United Arab Emirates is deepening its security relationship with India, reportedly moving toward a mutual defense treaty. A high-level military delegation is already in New Delhi discussing details, with speculation about upcoming summits to formalize the partnership. This builds on the UAE's existing“quad” alignment with India, the U.S., and Israel, which may now be expanding from trade and infrastructure into hard security and defense. For the Gulf, these are troubling signals-both in terms of the Arab–Israeli conflict and the region's fragile security cohesion.

Meanwhile, in Egypt, another strategic realignment is underway. Cairo's ties with Ankara are warmer than at any time in recent memory, as Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan recently put it. Joint naval exercises underline this new trajectory. Even more surprising, Egypt-not Oman or Iraq-played the role of mediator between Tehran and the International Atomic Energy Agency, helping broker their most recent agreement. These moves come against the backdrop of Egypt's escalating tensions with Israel over the Gaza war and its aftermath.

What's happening behind the headlines? What is driving these realignments and surprising rapprochements? And will other Arab states soon follow, seeking protection and partnerships with global or regional powers, inside or outside the familiar“international security club”?

The picture that emerges is sobering. Most Arab capitals traditionally aligned with Washington now have little, if any, faith in the U.S. as their guarantor. This distrust deepened after America's open support for Israel's assault on Doha, one of Washington's closest Arab partners. U.S. diplomacy at the UN Security Council-blocking any condemnation of the attack and shielding Israel-laid bare Washington's bias.

Nor do Arab states trust one another. Despite warm welcomes, handshakes, and state banquets, they neither believe in each other's intentions nor in their joint institutions. They doubt their collective strength and prefer reliance on distant allies over nearby neighbors.

Having watched Western powers abandon allies over the past two decades, Arab states are now looking eastward. Yet China shows no appetite for“strategic defense,” and Russia has little more to offer than what it already gave Assad. Moscow is open to friendship but avoids binding defense commitments.

While diversifying alliances is logical, the current path risks importing foreign rivalries into the region. By aligning separately with India or Pakistan, major Gulf states may be dragging the dangerous India–Pakistan conflict into their own backyard-complete with large expatriate communities on both sides.

The nuclear question looms large. Having missed the opportunity to join the nuclear club themselves, Arab heavyweights like Egypt and Saudi Arabia now look to Pakistan's arsenal. But will Islamabad really extend a nuclear shield, or is this more about promises in exchange for Gulf investment-promises likely to collapse under pressure at a critical moment?

Before racing abroad for protection, Arab states should have revived their own dormant defense pacts-both Gulf and pan-Arab. Doha's summit speeches and the recent Gulf defense ministers' meeting are hardly enough to restore faith that Arabs can build a sustainable joint security architecture with Israel as the primary threat.

For years, experts have urged Arab states, Turkey, and Iran to create a regional security and cooperation framework. Yet many Arab governments still see Iran-not Israel-as the enemy, and Turkey as a looming neo-Ottoman threat. This mindset has blocked the possibility of a regional collective defense pact.

Whatever Arab misgivings about Iran or Turkey, the rise of Israeli fascism poses the most urgent danger. Israel is striking without restraint across the region, Gaza is under genocidal assault, and tensions are spilling into Cyprus and beyond. It is past time to set aside secondary disputes in order to confront the central adversary: Israel.

Cooperation with powers like Pakistan can complement Arab efforts, but priorities must be clear. The first step should be a regional front against Israel's aggression, not scattershot alliances with faraway actors.

Above all, Arab security cannot remain“borrowed” or outsourced. True security must come from within, based on Arab capabilities and institutions. Partnerships with Turkey, Iran, or Pakistan may be valuable, but the compass must point to Arab self-reliance. Without it, Arab states risk remaining pawns in the strategies of outside patrons, rather than actors shaping their own destiny.

The Middle East is entering a moment of rapid realignment. Old alliances are fraying, new ones are forming, and Arab governments are searching for shields beyond their borders. Yet unless they build a core of genuine Arab self-reliance, these states may simply trade dependency on one patron for dependency on another. The lesson is clear: it is time to shift from dependency to self-sufficiency in Arab national security.

Article in Arabic

MENAFN21092025000209011053ID1110090530